Pacers v 76ers headlines 28 October: 68 predictions, the stakes and where the value is

68 games across 22 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.

Wednesday, 28 October 2026 brings 68 games across Sheffield Shield, West Indies tour of Bangladesh 2026/27, CWC Challenge League Group A, WTA Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis and 18 more. 12 involve a team on a run of three or more, and the biggest of the day is Indiana Pacers against Philadelphia 76ers in the NBA. This is the day in sections: what is at stake, which favourites look fragile, where our prices and the market split, and the full schedule with a pick for every game.

The big one: Indiana Pacers v Philadelphia 76ers

Indiana Pacers50.5%vPhiladelphia 76ers49.5%Pacers to win · 50.5%

Why it matters: Pacers sit 14th (2-2), 76ers 12th (3-1).

Indiana Pacers are a narrow favourite at 50.5% against Philadelphia 76ers at 49.5%. Form: Indiana Pacers LWLWL, Philadelphia 76ers LWWWL (most recent first).

Playoff games, table clashes and streaks

• Atlanta Hawks v Miami Heat (NBA, 23:00 UTC): Hawks sit 6th (2-2), Heat 28th (0-4); Heat have lost 5 in a row. Model: Hawks 58.1%.
• Santos v Palmeiras (Brasileirao, 22:30 UTC): Santos sit 8th (46 pts), Palmeiras 2nd (69 pts); Palmeiras have won 4 in a row. Model: Palmeiras 45.5%.
• Venezia v Internazionale (Serie A, 17:30 UTC): Venezia sit 20th (3 pts), Inter Milan 2nd (22 pts); Inter Milan have won 3 in a row. Model: Inter Milan 74.4%.
• Detroit Pistons v Charlotte Hornets (NBA, 23:00 UTC): Pistons sit 11th (3-1), Hornets 24th (3-1); Pistons have won 5 in a row. Model: Pistons 60.9%.
• Heart of Midlothian v Rangers (Scottish Premiership, 20:00 UTC): a top-of-the-table meeting, 3rd against 2nd (19 pts v 23 pts). Model: Rangers 53.4%.
• Fluminense v Internacional (Brasileirao, 22:30 UTC): Fluminense sit 5th (51 pts), Internacional 16th (35 pts); Fluminense have lost 3 in a row. Model: Fluminense 46.7%.

Where the model and the bookmakers disagree

A gap of five points or more between our probability and the de-vigged market price is where a prediction becomes interesting. 6 games clear that bar today.

A positive gap means the model is more confident than the market, which over a season is where the edge, if any, has to come from. A negative gap is a favourite the model likes less than the bookmakers do.

Upset watch

• Udinese (43.1%) over Parma, with Udinese on a 6-game losing run. Draw 28.2%, Parma 28.7%.
• Pisa (41.8%) over Palermo, who have won 4 straight. Draw 26.6%, Palermo 31.7%.
• Fluminense (46.7%) over Internacional, with Fluminense on a 3-game losing run. Draw 28%, Internacional 25.3%.
• New England Revolution (40.6%) over Red Bull New York. Draw 29.2%, Red Bull NY 30.2%.
• Hibernian (50.5%) over St Mirren, with Hibernian on a 3-game losing run. Draw 27.1%, St Mirren 22.4%.

Goals markets

• Over 2.5 lean: Inter Miami CF v FC Cincinnati, 86.2% (expected goals 3.2 and 1.7)
• Over 2.5 lean: Monza v Napoli, 74.4% (expected goals 1.6 and 2.3)
• Over 2.5 lean: Venezia v Internazionale, 73.9% (expected goals 0.7 and 3.2)
• Under 2.5 lean: Genoa v Juventus, 66.5%
• Under 2.5 lean: Parma v Udinese, 64.9%
• Both teams to score: Inter Miami CF v FC Cincinnati is the strongest at 78%

Yesterday in one line

57 of 95 picks landed (60%), against a running 56.2% over 1784 settled predictions. The full review, including the misses, is in the model review. Read the review

Every game today, 68 predictions

• 00:00 UTC South Australia v Western Australia (Sheffield Shield): SOA 44.4%
• 03:30 UTC Bangladesh v West Indies (West Indies tour of Bangladesh 2026/27): BAN 57%
• 06:45 UTC Denmark v Qatar (CWC Challenge League Group A): QAT 50.7%
• 06:45 UTC Kenya v Kuwait (CWC Challenge League Group A): KUW 68.8%
• 06:50 UTC Aliaksandra Sasnovich v Diana Shnaider (WTA Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis): D. Shnaider 69%
• 07:20 UTC Paula Badosa v Sinja Kraus (WTA Guangzhou Open): P. Badosa 52.9%
• 08:00 UTC Alexandra Eala v Talia Gibson (WTA Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis): A. Eala 67.3%
• 08:00 UTC Harriet Dart v Janice Tjen (WTA Guangzhou Open): J. Tjen 52.1%
• 08:30 UTC India Women v Zimbabwe Women (Zimbabwe Women tour of India 2026/27): IND-W 92.7%
• 11:00 UTC Robin Montgomery v Lisa Pigato (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): R. Montgomery 65.3%
• 11:00 UTC Yelyzaveta Kotliar v Erika Andreeva (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): E. Andreeva 54.1%
• 11:00 UTC Shi Han v Dayana Yastremska (WTA Guangzhou Open): D. Yastremska 51.7%
• 11:30 UTC Yannick Hanfmann v Jan-Lennard Struff (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): J. Struff 52.4%
• 12:30 UTC Tallon Griekspoor v Brandon Nakashima (ATP Erste Bank Open): B. Nakashima 61.9%
• 12:30 UTC Daniel Merida v Daniil Medvedev (ATP Erste Bank Open): D. Medvedev 67.7%
• 12:30 UTC Elsa Jacquemot v Caroline Werner (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): E. Jacquemot 56%
• 13:00 UTC Remy Bertola v Denis Shapovalov (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): D. Shapovalov 72.8%
• 13:00 UTC Nuno Borges v Casper Ruud (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): C. Ruud 58.5%
• 14:00 UTC Lorenzo Musetti v Frances Tiafoe (ATP Erste Bank Open): F. Tiafoe 54.1%
• 14:00 UTC Elizara Yaneva v Oksana Selekhmeteva (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): O. Selekhmeteva 51.8%
• 14:30 UTC Novak Djokovic v Ugo Humbert (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): N. Djokovic 80%
• 15:30 UTC Gabriela Knutson v Alina Charaeva (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): A. Charaeva 51.3%
• 15:30 UTC Linda Klimovicova v Noma Noha Akugue (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): N. Noha Akugue 55.7%
• 15:30 UTC Jakub Mensik v Adrian Mannarino (ATP Erste Bank Open): J. Mensik 61%
• 16:00 UTC Leyre Romero Gormaz v Antonia Vergara Rivera (WTA Curitiba Open): L. Romero Gormaz 73.3%
• 16:30 UTC Jurij Rodionov v Nikoloz Basilashvili (ATP Erste Bank Open): N. Basilashvili 70.2%
• 17:00 UTC Taylor Fritz v Stefanos Tsitsipas (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): T. Fritz 76.2%
• 17:30 UTC AC Milan v Bologna (Serie A): Milan 56.3%, likely 1-0
• 17:30 UTC Parma v Udinese (Serie A): Udinese 43.1%, likely 0-1
• 17:30 UTC Venezia v Internazionale (Serie A): Inter Milan 74.4%, likely 0-3
• 17:30 UTC Gabriela Ce v Solana Sierra (WTA Curitiba Open): S. Sierra 72.6%
• 18:00 UTC Pisa v Palermo (Serie B): Pisa 41.8%, likely 2-1
• 18:00 UTC Degerfors IF v Västerås SK (Allsvenskan): Västerås 44.2%, likely 0-1
• 18:00 UTC Halmstads BK v Malmö FF (Allsvenskan): Malmö 64.8%, likely 0-1
• 18:00 UTC IF Brommapojkarna v BK Häcken (Allsvenskan): BK Häcken 67.8%, likely 1-2
• 18:00 UTC IFK Göteborg v Djurgården (Allsvenskan): Djurgården 54.6%, likely 0-2
• 18:30 UTC Hubert Hurkacz v Holger Rune (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): H. Hurkacz 59%
• 19:00 UTC Carrarese v Arezzo (Serie B): Carrarese 44.8%, likely 2-0
• 19:00 UTC Juve Stabia v Hellas Verona (Serie B): Verona 46%, likely 1-2
• 19:00 UTC Learner Tien v Alex de Minaur (ATP Erste Bank Open): A. de Minaur 58.1%
• 19:30 UTC Lucrezia Stefanini v Ayla Aksu (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): L. Stefanini 57.1%
• 19:45 UTC Genoa v Juventus (Serie A): Juventus 62.1%, likely 0-1
• 19:45 UTC Monza v Napoli (Serie A): Napoli 57.9%, likely 1-2
• 19:45 UTC Aberdeen v Falkirk (Scottish Premiership): Aberdeen 53.3%, likely 1-0
• 19:45 UTC Celtic v Dundee United (Scottish Premiership): Celtic 87.7%, likely 2-0
• 19:45 UTC Dundee v Kilmarnock (Scottish Premiership): Dundee 49%, likely 2-1
• 19:45 UTC St Johnstone v Motherwell (Scottish Premiership): St Johnstone 39.7%, likely 1-0
• 19:45 UTC St Mirren v Hibernian (Scottish Premiership): Hibernian 50.5%, likely 0-1
• 20:00 UTC Heart of Midlothian v Rangers (Scottish Premiership): Rangers 53.4%, likely 1-2
• 21:30 UTC Carmen Andreea Herea v Carole Monnet (WTA Queretaro Open): C. Herea 58.8%
• 22:30 UTC Fluminense v Internacional (Brasileirao): Fluminense 46.7%, likely 1-0
• 22:30 UTC Red Bull Bragantino v Chapecoense (Brasileirao): Bragantino 75.4%, likely 2-0
• 22:30 UTC Santos v Palmeiras (Brasileirao): Palmeiras 45.5%, likely 0-1
• 23:00 UTC Once Caldas v Alianza FC (Primera A): Once Caldas 78.7%, likely 1-0
• 23:00 UTC Atlanta Hawks v Miami Heat (NBA): Hawks 58.1%
• 23:00 UTC Cleveland Cavaliers v Washington Wizards (NBA): Cavaliers 66.1%
• 23:00 UTC Detroit Pistons v Charlotte Hornets (NBA): Pistons 60.9%
• 23:00 UTC Indiana Pacers v Philadelphia 76ers (NBA): Pacers 50.5%
• 23:00 UTC Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders v Kennesaw State Owls (NCAA Football): MTSU 55.5%
• 23:00 UTC Selena Janicijevic v Elizabeth Mandlik (WTA Queretaro Open): E. Mandlik 50.6%
• 23:30 UTC Universidad Católica v Audax Italiano (Primera Division): U Católica 65.6%, likely 2-1
• 23:30 UTC Charlotte FC v CF Montréal (MLS): Charlotte 57.9%, likely 2-0
• 23:30 UTC Inter Miami CF v FC Cincinnati (MLS): Miami 60.5%, likely 3-1
• 23:30 UTC New England Revolution v Red Bull New York (MLS): New England 40.6%, likely 2-0
• 23:30 UTC New York City FC v Atlanta United FC (MLS): NYCFC 49.7%, likely 1-0
• 23:30 UTC Toronto FC v D.C. United (MLS): Toronto 42.2%, likely 2-1
• 23:30 UTC Toronto Raptors v Orlando Magic (NBA): Raptors 57.7%
• 23:30 UTC Washington Capitals v Philadelphia Flyers (NHL): Capitals 71.7%

How to read these numbers

Every probability is the output of a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where they exist, with a form and record model for the American leagues. A 55% favourite loses almost half the time, so the percentages are the point, not the pick. Every call is locked before kick-off and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.