PSG v Barcelona headlines 20 October: 67 predictions, the stakes and where the value is
67 games across 18 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.
Tuesday, 20 October 2026 brings 67 games across MLB, Pakistan ODI Tri-Series, WTA BNB Ningbo Open, ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and 14 more. 1 of them is a playoff game, 20 involve a team on a run of three or more, and the biggest of the day is Paris Saint-Germain against Barcelona in the Champions League. This is the day in sections: what is at stake, which favourites look fragile, where our prices and the market split, and the full schedule with a pick for every game.
The big one: Paris Saint-Germain v Barcelona
Paris Saint-Germain35.2%4-2
Barcelona35.3%Barcelona to win · 35.3%Why it matters: a top-of-the-table meeting, 1st against 2nd (6 pts v 6 pts); PSG have won 6 in a row; Barcelona have won 10 in a row.
Barcelona are a marginal favourite at 43.3% (draw 30.7%, Paris Saint-Germain 26%). Expected goals come out at 2.6 for Paris Saint-Germain and 2.2 for Barcelona. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (86.4%), and both teams to score is likely at 83.5%. On Elo ratings Paris Saint-Germain are the clearly stronger side (147 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Paris Saint-Germain WWWWW, Barcelona WWWWW (most recent first).
The two sides have met 1 times recently: Paris Saint-Germain won 1, Barcelona won 0 and 0 were draws, averaging 3 goals a game with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Playoff games, table clashes and streaks
- VfB Stuttgart v Atlético Madrid (Champions League, 19:00 UTC): Stuttgart sit 4th (6 pts), Atlético 15th (3 pts); Atlético have won 6 in a row. Model: Atlético 53.4%.
- Detroit Pistons v Boston Celtics (NBA, 19:00 UTC): Pistons sit 8th (0-0), Celtics 2nd (0-0); Celtics have won 4 in a row. Model: Pistons 58.3%.
- New York Knicks v Philadelphia 76ers (NBA, 23:00 UTC): Knicks sit 18th (0-0), 76ers 20th (0-0); 76ers have lost 3 in a row. Model: Knicks 59.2%.
- Napoli v Bodo/Glimt (Champions League, 19:00 UTC): Napoli sit 32nd (0 pts), Bodo/Glimt 24th (3 pts); Bodo/Glimt have won 3 in a row. Model: Napoli 63%.
- AS Roma v Slovan Bratislava (Champions League, 19:00 UTC): AS Roma sit 25th (1 pts), S Bratislava 36th (0 pts); S Bratislava have lost 6 in a row. Model: AS Roma 91.4%.
- Milwaukee Brewers v Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB, 00:00 UTC): NLCS - Game 7 If Necessary: MIL leads series 3-0; Brewers have won 5 in a row; Dodgers have lost 4 in a row. Model: Brewers 53.4%.
Where the model and the bookmakers disagree
A gap of five points or more between our probability and the de-vigged market price is where a prediction becomes interesting. 6 games clear that bar today.
| Match | Pick | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven | FC Porto | 73.5% | 65.5% | +8 |
| Fenerbahce v Slavia Prague | Fenerbahce | 70.7% | 63.6% | +7.1 |
| Gillingham v Port Vale | Port Vale | 51.4% | 44.4% | +7 |
| Burton Albion v Bradford City | Bradford | 62.3% | 55.6% | +6.7 |
| Cúcuta Deportivo v Atlético Nacional | Atl. Nacional | 69% | 62.3% | +6.7 |
| Napoli v Bodo/Glimt | Napoli | 63% | 56.5% | +6.5 |
A positive gap means the model is more confident than the market, which over a season is where the edge, if any, has to come from. A negative gap is a favourite the model likes less than the bookmakers do.
Upset watch
- Barcelona (43.3%) over Paris Saint-Germain, who have won 6 straight. Draw 30.7%, PSG 26%.
- Blackpool (42.5%) over Milton Keynes Dons, with Blackpool on a 2-game losing run. Draw 27.7%, MK Dons 29.9%.
- Grimsby Town (50.5%) over Rochdale, with Grimsby on a 4-game losing run. Draw 28.6%, Rochdale 20.9%.
- Rotherham United (47.6%) over Newport County, with Rotherham on a 3-game losing run. Draw 25.6%, Newport 26.8%.
- Northampton Town (40.1%) over Tranmere Rovers. Draw 29.3%, Tranmere 30.6%.
Goals markets
- Over 2.5 lean: Paris Saint-Germain v Barcelona, 86.4% (expected goals 2.6 and 2.2)
- Over 2.5 lean: Liverpool v Villarreal, 83.3% (expected goals 3.2 and 1.4)
- Over 2.5 lean: AS Roma v Slovan Bratislava, 74.8% (expected goals 3.2 and 0.7)
- Under 2.5 lean: Exeter City v Crewe Alexandra, 92.2%
- Under 2.5 lean: Northampton Town v Tranmere Rovers, 77.3%
- Both teams to score: Paris Saint-Germain v Barcelona is the strongest at 83.5%
Yesterday in one line
40 of 63 picks landed (63.5%), against a running 56.3% over 966 settled predictions. The full review, including the misses, is in the model review. Read the review
Every game today, 67 predictions
- 00:00 UTC Milwaukee Brewers v Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB): Brewers 53.4%
- 08:00 UTC Pakistan v England (Pakistan ODI Tri-Series): PAK 56.3%
- 10:50 UTC Katarzyna Kawa v Maja Chwalinska (WTA BNB Ningbo Open): D. Snigur 68.6%
- 12:00 UTC Arthur Fery v Borna Gojo (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): A. Fery 72.8%
- 12:10 UTC Ugo Humbert v Corentin Moutet (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): U. Humbert 63.9%
- 13:00 UTC Lesotho v Mozambique (ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group C): MOZ 75.5%
- 13:00 UTC Nigeria v Gambia (ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group C): NGA 87%
- 13:30 UTC India Women v Zimbabwe Women (Zimbabwe Women tour of India 2026/27): IND-W 95.6%
- 13:50 UTC Benjamin Bonzi v Cameron Norrie (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): B. Bonzi 50.8%
- 13:50 UTC Daniel Altmaier v Titouan Droguet (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): T. Droguet 54.4%
- 14:00 UTC Jacob Fearnley v Hugo Gaston (ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open): J. Fearnley 52.7%
- 14:30 UTC Rei Sakamoto v Karen Khachanov (ATP Almaty Open): K. Khachanov 55.1%
- 14:30 UTC Luca Van Assche v Clement Tabur (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): C. Tabur 51%
- 15:00 UTC Al Diriyah v Al Riyadh (Saudi Pro League): Al Diriyah 57%, likely 1-0
- 15:10 UTC Al Taawoun v Al Qadsiah (Saudi Pro League): Al Qadsiah 74%, likely 0-2
- 16:00 UTC Dolphins v Warriors (South Africa Domestic T20/Pro20): WAR 53.6%
- 16:00 UTC Toby Samuel v Zizou Bergs (ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open): Z. Bergs 52.5%
- 16:45 UTC Fenerbahce v Slavia Prague (Champions League): Fenerbahce 70.7%
- 16:45 UTC Sabah FK v Borussia Dortmund (Champions League): Dortmund 76.8%, likely 0-1
- 17:00 UTC Matteo Berrettini v Kyrian Jacquet (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): M. Berrettini 54%
- 17:30 UTC Holger Rune v Raphael Collignon (ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open): N. Basavareddy 53.8%
- 18:00 UTC Al Ettifaq v Al Ittihad (Saudi Pro League): Al Ittihad 52.6%, likely 1-2
- 18:00 UTC Al Nassr v Neom SC (Saudi Pro League): Al Nassr 69.2%, likely 2-0
- 18:30 UTC Hamad Medjedovic v Brandon Nakashima (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): B. Nakashima 75.1%
- 18:45 UTC Wolverhampton Wanderers v Portsmouth (Championship): Wolves 61.1%, likely 2-1
- 18:45 UTC AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield Town (League One): Mansfield 53.6%, likely 0-1
- 18:45 UTC Blackpool v Milton Keynes Dons (League One): Blackpool 42.5%, likely 2-1
- 18:45 UTC Bromley v Leicester City (League One): Leicester 63.3%, likely 1-2
- 18:45 UTC Burton Albion v Bradford City (League One): Bradford 62.3%, likely 0-1
- 18:45 UTC Cambridge United v Wycombe Wanderers (League One): Cambridge 37.4%, likely 2-1
- 18:45 UTC Doncaster Rovers v Stockport County (League One): Stockport 63%, likely 1-2
- 18:45 UTC Huddersfield Town v Peterborough United (League One): Huddersfield 65.7%, likely 2-0
- 18:45 UTC Luton Town v Barnsley (League One): Luton 73.7%, likely 2-1
- 18:45 UTC Notts County v Sheffield Wednesday (League One): Sheffield Wed 52.9%, likely 0-1
- 18:45 UTC Oxford United v Wigan Athletic (League One): Oxford Utd 44.8%, likely 2-0
- 18:45 UTC Stevenage v Plymouth Argyle (League One): Plymouth 44.3%, likely 0-1
- 18:45 UTC Barnet v Swindon Town (League Two): Barnet 69.1%, likely 2-1
- 18:45 UTC Bristol Rovers v Salford City (League Two): Bristol Rovers 38.9%
- 18:45 UTC Cheltenham Town v Fleetwood Town (League Two): Fleetwood Town 50.8%, likely 1-2
- 18:45 UTC Chesterfield v Colchester United (League Two): Chesterfield 68.4%, likely 1-0
- 18:45 UTC Crawley Town v Shrewsbury Town (League Two): Shrewsbury 46.4%, likely 0-1
- 18:45 UTC Exeter City v Crewe Alexandra (League Two): Exeter 38.9%, likely 1-0
- 18:45 UTC Northampton Town v Tranmere Rovers (League Two): Northampton 40.1%, likely 1-0
- 18:45 UTC Rochdale v Grimsby Town (League Two): Grimsby 50.5%, likely 1-2
- 18:45 UTC Rotherham United v Newport County (League Two): Rotherham 47.6%
- 18:45 UTC Walsall v Oldham Athletic (League Two): Walsall 37.9%, likely 1-0
- 18:45 UTC York City v Accrington Stanley (League Two): York City 58.8%, likely 2-1
- 19:00 UTC AS Roma v Slovan Bratislava (Champions League): AS Roma 91.4%, likely 3-0
- 19:00 UTC FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven (Champions League): FC Porto 73.5%, likely 1-0
- 19:00 UTC Liverpool v Villarreal (Champions League): Liverpool 67.3%, likely 3-1
- 19:00 UTC Manchester City v AEK Athens (Champions League): Man City 92.8%, likely 1-0
- 19:00 UTC Napoli v Bodo/Glimt (Champions League): Napoli 63%, likely 1-0
- 19:00 UTC Paris Saint-Germain v Barcelona (Champions League): Barcelona 43.3%
- 19:00 UTC VfB Stuttgart v Atlético Madrid (Champions League): Atlético 53.4%
- 19:00 UTC Gillingham v Port Vale (League Two): Port Vale 51.4%, likely 0-1
- 19:00 UTC Detroit Pistons v Boston Celtics (NBA): Pistons 58.3%
- 21:30 UTC Deportivo Pereira v Boyacá Chicó FC (Primera A): Pereira 51%, likely 1-0
- 23:00 UTC New York Knicks v Philadelphia 76ers (NBA): Knicks 59.2%
- 23:00 UTC Florida International Panthers v Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (NCAA Football): FIU 55.5%
- 23:00 UTC Delaware Blue Hens v Missouri State Bears (NCAA Football): Delaware 55.5%
- 23:00 UTC Montreal Canadiens v San Jose Sharks (NHL): Canadiens 59.8%
- 23:00 UTC New Jersey Devils v Colorado Avalanche (NHL): Avalanche 53.5%
- 23:00 UTC New York Islanders v Anaheim Ducks (NHL): Islanders 61%
- 23:00 UTC Washington Capitals v Los Angeles Kings (NHL): Capitals 78.9%
- 23:00 UTC Columbus Blue Jackets v Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL): Blue Jackets 50.1%
- 23:15 UTC Internacional de Bogotá v Fortaleza CEIF (Primera A): Inter Bogotá 50%, likely 2-1
- 23:30 UTC Cúcuta Deportivo v Atlético Nacional (Primera A): Atl. Nacional 69%, likely 1-2
How to read these numbers
Every probability is the output of a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where they exist, with a form and record model for the American leagues. A 55% favourite loses almost half the time, so the percentages are the point, not the pick. Every call is locked before kick-off and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.