Barcelona v Real Madrid headlines 25 October: 116 predictions, the stakes and where the value is

116 games across 37 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.

Sunday, 25 October 2026 brings 116 games across WTA Kinoshita Group Japan Open, J1 League, ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2, CWC Challenge League Group A and 33 more. 38 involve a team on a run of three or more, and the biggest of the day is Barcelona against Real Madrid in the La Liga. This is the day in sections: what is at stake, which favourites look fragile, where our prices and the market split, and the full schedule with a pick for every game.

The big one: Barcelona v Real Madrid

Barcelona52.3%vReal Madrid21.9%Barcelona to win · 52.3%

Why it matters: a top-of-the-table meeting, 1st against 3rd (27 pts v 21 pts); Real Madrid have won 4 in a row.

Barcelona are a narrow favourite at 52.3% (draw 25.8%, Real Madrid 21.9%). Expected goals come out at 2.5 for Barcelona and 1.4 for Real Madrid, with 2-1 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (74.3%), and both teams to score is likely at 69.2%. Bookmakers price Barcelona at about 58.6%, so the model is 6.3 points below the market. On Elo ratings Barcelona are the clearly stronger side (160 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Barcelona LWWWW, Real Madrid WWWWL (most recent first).

The two sides have met 3 times recently: Barcelona won 2, Real Madrid won 1 and 0 were draws, averaging 4 goals a game with both teams scoring in 66.7% of them.

Team news: Anthony Gordon delivers rating out of 10 for his start at Barcelona. Barcelona and England forward Anthony Gordon has told ESPN he is still a long way from where he wants to be as he prepares for Sunday's Clásico against Real Madrid.

Playoff games, table clashes and streaks

• Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion (Premier League, 14:00 UTC): Liverpool sit 5th (12 pts), Brighton 3rd (16 pts); Liverpool have won 3 in a row. Model: Liverpool 45%.
• Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth (Premier League, 14:00 UTC): Man United sit 15th (7 pts), Bournemouth 17th (6 pts); Bournemouth have won 3 in a row. Model: Man United 39.4%.
• Minnesota Vikings v Indianapolis Colts (NFL, 17:00 UTC): Vikings sit 4th (5-0), Colts 25th (2-4); Vikings have won 5 in a row. Model: Vikings 53.2%.
• SC Freiburg v Bayern Munich (Bundesliga, 16:30 UTC): a top-of-the-table meeting, 3rd against 2nd (13 pts v 14 pts). Model: Bayern 70.4%.
• Atlanta Falcons v San Francisco 49ers (NFL, 17:00 UTC): Falcons sit 21st (2-4), 49ers 1st (6-0); 49ers have won 7 in a row. Model: Falcons 48%.
• Detroit Lions v Green Bay Packers (NFL, 20:25 UTC): Lions sit 12th (3-2), Packers 14th (4-2); Packers have won 3 in a row. Model: Lions 51.6%.

Where the model and the bookmakers disagree

A gap of five points or more between our probability and the de-vigged market price is where a prediction becomes interesting. 6 games clear that bar today.

A positive gap means the model is more confident than the market, which over a season is where the edge, if any, has to come from. A negative gap is a favourite the model likes less than the bookmakers do.

Upset watch

• Albacete (43.5%) over Eldense, who have won 3 straight, with Albacete on a 5-game losing run. Draw 25.2%, Eldense 31.3%.
• Atlanta Falcons (48%) over San Francisco 49ers, who have won 7 straight, with Falcons on a 2-game losing run. Draw 6%, 49ers 46%.
• Miami Dolphins (47.1%) over New York Jets, with Dolphins on a 6-game losing run. Draw 6%, Jets 46.9%.
• Kristiansund BK (45.2%) over KFUM Oslo, with Kristiansund on a 4-game losing run. Draw 24.3%, KFUM 30.4%.
• Lillestrom (40%) over SK Brann. Draw 27.4%, SK Brann 32.6%.

Goals markets

• Over 2.5 lean: Hellas Verona v Pisa, 83.9% (expected goals 2.1 and 2.5)
• Over 2.5 lean: Stade Rennais v Strasbourg, 83.4% (expected goals 2.7 and 1.9)
• Over 2.5 lean: Goztepe v Çorum FK, 81.4% (expected goals 2.1 and 2.3)
• Under 2.5 lean: Athletic Club v Getafe, 82.9%
• Under 2.5 lean: CD Sabadell v Tenerife, 72%
• Both teams to score: Hellas Verona v Pisa is the strongest at 81.4%

Yesterday in one line

122 of 239 picks landed (51%), against a running 55.9% over 1505 settled predictions. The full review, including the misses, is in the model review. Read the review

Every game today, 116 predictions

• 04:35 UTC Ashlyn Krueger v Katerina Siniakova (WTA Kinoshita Group Japan Open): A. Krueger 50.2%
• 05:00 UTC Nagoya Grampus v Yokohama F. Marinos (J1 League): Yokohama FM 41%, likely 1-2
• 05:30 UTC United Arab Emirates v Netherlands (ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2): NED 70.5%
• 06:00 UTC Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Ichihara-Chiba (J1 League): Cerezo Osaka 56.2%, likely 2-0
• 06:00 UTC Urawa Red Diamonds v V-Varen Nagasaki (J1 League): Urawa Reds 46.1%, likely 2-1
• 06:45 UTC Denmark v Papua New Guinea (CWC Challenge League Group A): DEN 66.5%
• 06:45 UTC Kenya v Jersey (CWC Challenge League Group A): JER 79.7%
• 07:00 UTC FC Tokyo v Mito Hollyhock (J1 League): Tokyo 81.5%, likely 2-0
• 07:00 UTC Kawasaki Frontale v Fagiano Okayama (J1 League): Kawasaki 52%, likely 2-1
• 08:00 UTC Pakistan v England (Pakistan ODI Tri-Series): PAK 65.9%
• 08:30 UTC India Women v Zimbabwe Women (Zimbabwe Women tour of India 2026/27): IND-W 92.4%
• 09:00 UTC Gambia v Lesotho (ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group C): GMB 54.5%
• 09:00 UTC Mozambique v Zambia (ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group C): ZMB 63.5%
• 09:00 UTC Elena Rybakina v Leylah Fernandez (WTA BNB Ningbo Open): E. Rybakina 77%
• 10:00 UTC Daniil Medvedev v Nikoloz Basilashvili (ATP Almaty Open): D. Medvedev 71.2%
• 11:00 UTC Boland v Titans (South Africa Domestic T20/Pro20): TITNS 67.7%
• 11:15 UTC Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior (Eredivisie): Excelsior 36.3%, likely 1-2
• 11:30 UTC Internazionale v Fiorentina (Serie A): Inter Milan 63.5%, likely 3-0
• 12:00 UTC Hibernian v Celtic (Scottish Premiership): Celtic 69.6%, likely 0-2
• 12:30 UTC Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden (2. Bundesliga): Holstein Kiel 41.7%, likely 1-0
• 12:30 UTC TSV Eintracht Braunschweig v Hannover 96 (2. Bundesliga): Hannover 41.9%, likely 1-2
• 12:30 UTC VfL Osnabruck v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (2. Bundesliga): Osnabruck 46%, likely 2-1
• 12:30 UTC Racing Genk v Standard Liege (Belgian Pro League): Genk 60.3%, likely 2-1
• 13:00 UTC Nigeria v Uganda (ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group C): UGA 76.5%
• 13:00 UTC Athletic Club v Getafe (La Liga): Athletic 64.2%, likely 1-0
• 13:00 UTC CD Sabadell v Tenerife (LaLiga 2): CD Sabadell 55.9%, likely 1-0
• 13:00 UTC Konyaspor v Genclerbirligi (Super Lig): Konyaspor 55.3%, likely 1-0
• 13:00 UTC FC Midtjylland v Lyngby Boldklub (Danish Superliga): Midtjylland 72.9%, likely 3-0
• 13:00 UTC Silkeborg IF v FC Nordsjælland (Danish Superliga): Nordsjælland 67%, likely 1-2
• 13:00 UTC GAIS v IFK Göteborg (Allsvenskan): GAIS 39%, likely 1-0
• 13:30 UTC NEC Nijmegen v FC Groningen (Eredivisie): FC Groningen 36.1%, likely 1-2
• 13:30 UTC PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord Rotterdam (Eredivisie): PSV 40.8%, likely 2-1
• 13:30 UTC SK Sturm Graz v SV Josko Ried (Austrian Bundesliga): Sturm Graz 59%, likely 2-0
• 13:30 UTC Viking FK v Tromso (Eliteserien): Viking FK 66.6%, likely 2-0
• 13:30 UTC New Orleans Saints v Pittsburgh Steelers (NFL): Saints 47.6%
• 13:30 UTC Lorenzo Musetti v Taylor Fritz (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): T. Fritz 56.1%
• 14:00 UTC Crystal Palace v Newcastle United (Premier League): Newcastle 44.3%, likely 1-2
• 14:00 UTC Hull City v Brentford (Premier League): Brentford 59.7%, likely 0-1
• 14:00 UTC Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion (Premier League): Liverpool 45%
• 14:00 UTC Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth (Premier League): Man United 39.4%, likely 2-1
• 14:00 UTC Atalanta v Frosinone (Serie A): Atalanta 51.1%, likely 2-1
• 14:00 UTC Genoa v Venezia (Serie A): Genoa 40.7%, likely 1-0
• 14:00 UTC AS Monaco v Lille (Ligue 1): Monaco 45.4%, likely 1-0
• 14:00 UTC Motherwell v Heart of Midlothian (Scottish Premiership): Hearts 53.3%, likely 1-2
• 14:00 UTC Palermo v Carrarese (Serie B): Palermo 69.9%, likely 2-0
• 14:00 UTC Olympiacos v Kalamata (Greek Super League): Olympiacos 90.8%, likely 1-0
• 14:30 UTC TSG Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga): Leverkusen 42.8%, likely 1-2
• 15:00 UTC Club Brugge v Sint-Truidense (Belgian Pro League): Club Brugge 73.3%, likely 3-0
• 15:00 UTC AC Horsens v Sønderjyske Fodbold (Danish Superliga): AC Horsens 36.3%, likely 2-1
• 15:00 UTC Ñublense v Coquimbo Unido (Primera Division): Coquimbo 47.4%, likely 1-2
• 15:15 UTC Celta Vigo v Real Betis (La Liga): Betis 44.1%
• 15:15 UTC Albacete v Eldense (LaLiga 2): Albacete 43.5%
• 15:15 UTC Cádiz v Ceuta (LaLiga 2): Cádiz 56.5%, likely 1-0
• 15:30 UTC Estoril v Moreirense (Primeira Liga): Estoril 47.5%, likely 1-0
• 15:30 UTC Mjällby AIF v Hammarby IF (Allsvenskan): Hammarby 74%, likely 0-2
• 15:30 UTC Jan-Lennard Struff v Tallon Griekspoor (ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open): J. Struff 54.6%
• 15:45 UTC Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax Amsterdam (Eredivisie): Ajax 65.5%, likely 1-2
• 16:00 UTC Goztepe v Çorum FK (Super Lig): Çorum FK 37.7%, likely 1-2
• 16:00 UTC Volos NFC v Panathinaikos (Greek Super League): Panathinaikos 80.3%, likely 0-2
• 16:00 UTC LASK Linz v RB Salzburg (Austrian Bundesliga): LASK Linz 42.5%, likely 2-1
• 16:00 UTC IK Start v Sandefjord (Eliteserien): IK Start 44.5%
• 16:00 UTC Kristiansund BK v KFUM Oslo (Eliteserien): Kristiansund 45.2%
• 16:00 UTC Lillestrom v SK Brann (Eliteserien): Lillestrom 40%, likely 2-1
• 16:00 UTC Sarpsborg FK v Aalesund (Eliteserien): Sarpsborg FK 54.6%, likely 2-1
• 16:15 UTC Toulouse v Troyes (Ligue 1): Toulouse 52.1%, likely 2-0
• 16:15 UTC AJ Auxerre v Le Mans (Ligue 1): Auxerre 40.9%, likely 2-1
• 16:15 UTC Angers v Lorient (Ligue 1): Lorient 43.1%, likely 0-1
• 16:15 UTC Marseille v Le Havre AC (Ligue 1): Marseille 55%, likely 2-0
• 16:15 UTC Stade Rennais v Strasbourg (Ligue 1): Rennes 51.1%, likely 2-1
• 16:15 UTC Hellas Verona v Pisa (Serie B): Verona 47.8%
• 16:30 UTC Sunderland v Leeds United (Premier League): Leeds 45%, likely 0-1
• 16:30 UTC SC Freiburg v Bayern Munich (Bundesliga): Bayern 70.4%, likely 1-2
• 17:00 UTC Lecce v Juventus (Serie A): Juventus 69.6%, likely 0-1
• 17:00 UTC AGF v Viborg FF (Danish Superliga): AGF 37.4%, likely 2-1
• 17:00 UTC Atlanta Falcons v San Francisco 49ers (NFL): Falcons 48%
• 17:00 UTC Tennessee Titans v Cleveland Browns (NFL): Titans 49.4%
• 17:00 UTC Minnesota Vikings v Indianapolis Colts (NFL): Vikings 53.2%
• 17:00 UTC New York Jets v Miami Dolphins (NFL): Dolphins 47.1%
• 17:00 UTC Carolina Panthers v Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL): Panthers 52.1%
• 17:00 UTC Baltimore Ravens v Cincinnati Bengals (NFL): Ravens 54.5%
• 17:00 UTC Houston Texans v New York Giants (NFL): Texans 60.9%
• 17:30 UTC Real Sociedad v Levante (La Liga): Real Sociedad 58%, likely 2-1
• 17:30 UTC Castellón v Sporting Gijón (LaLiga 2): Castellón 71.6%, likely 1-0
• 17:30 UTC KAA Gent v Anderlecht (Belgian Pro League): KAA Gent 41.1%, likely 1-0
• 17:30 UTC Aris v Atromitos (Greek Super League): Aris 65.5%, likely 1-0
• 17:45 UTC Aldosivi v Belgrano (Córdoba) (Liga Profesional): Belgrano 51.8%, likely 0-1
• 18:00 UTC C.D. Nacional v Braga (Primeira Liga): Braga 64.3%, likely 1-2
• 18:00 UTC Rio Ave v FC Famalicao (Primeira Liga): FC Famalicao 51.3%, likely 0-1
• 18:00 UTC OFI Crete v PAOK (Greek Super League): PAOK 63.7%, likely 1-2
• 18:00 UTC Unión La Calera v Universidad Católica (Primera Division): U Católica 54.7%, likely 0-2
• 18:15 UTC Union St.-Gilloise v Cercle Brugge KSV (Belgian Pro League): Union SG 73%, likely 3-0
• 18:15 UTC Molde v Fredrikstad (Eliteserien): Molde 74.5%, likely 2-1
• 19:00 UTC AZ Alkmaar v FC Twente (Eredivisie): AZ Alkmaar 37.9%, likely 2-1
• 19:00 UTC Fortaleza CEIF v Deportivo Cali (Primera A): Cali 54.7%, likely 0-1
• 19:00 UTC Chicago Blackhawks v Florida Panthers (NHL): Panthers 62.2%
• 19:45 UTC Udinese v AC Milan (Serie A): Milan 61.4%, likely 1-2
• 20:00 UTC Barcelona v Real Madrid (La Liga): Barcelona 52.3%, likely 2-1
• 20:00 UTC Independiente v Boca Juniors (Liga Profesional): Boca 50.5%, likely 0-1
• 20:05 UTC Arizona Cardinals v Denver Broncos (NFL): Broncos 54.2%
• 20:25 UTC Detroit Lions v Green Bay Packers (NFL): Lions 51.6%
• 20:25 UTC Las Vegas Raiders v Los Angeles Rams (NFL): Rams 52.4%
• 20:30 UTC Sporting CP v Académico de Viseu (Primeira Liga): Sporting 75.4%, likely 2-0
• 20:30 UTC Palestino v Colo Colo (Primera Division): Colo Colo 54.5%, likely 1-2
• 21:00 UTC Utah Jazz v Los Angeles Lakers (NBA): Lakers 50.4%
• 21:05 UTC Alianza FC v Internacional de Bogotá (Primera A): Alianza FC 44.9%, likely 2-1
• 22:00 UTC Brooklyn Nets v Indiana Pacers (NBA): Nets 57.7%
• 22:00 UTC Dallas Stars v New York Islanders (NHL): Stars 57.2%
• 22:15 UTC River Plate v Racing Club (Liga Profesional): River Plate 65.3%, likely 2-0
• 23:00 UTC Atlas v Puebla (Liga MX): Atlas 51.7%, likely 1-0
• 23:00 UTC Universidad de Concepción v Deportes Limache (Primera Division): Limache 47.3%, likely 0-1
• 23:00 UTC New York Knicks v Orlando Magic (NBA): Knicks 59.2%
• 23:00 UTC Minnesota Timberwolves v Toronto Raptors (NBA): Timberwolves 58.1%
• 23:00 UTC Oklahoma City Thunder v LA Clippers (NBA): Thunder 62.1%
• 23:00 UTC Winnipeg Jets v Montreal Canadiens (NHL): Jets 52.2%
• 23:10 UTC Atlético Nacional v Independiente Medellín (Primera A): Atl. Nacional 57.4%, likely 2-0
• 23:30 UTC Philadelphia 76ers v Detroit Pistons (NBA): 76ers 54.2%

How to read these numbers

Every probability is the output of a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where they exist, with a form and record model for the American leagues. A 55% favourite loses almost half the time, so the percentages are the point, not the pick. Every call is locked before kick-off and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.