Maple Leafs v Rangers headlines 22 October: 59 predictions, the stakes and where the value is
59 games across 12 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.
Thursday, 22 October 2026 brings 59 games across Pakistan ODI Tri-Series, Ireland tour of Namibia 2026/27, New Zealand Women tour of Australia 2026/27, ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and 8 more. 11 involve a team on a run of three or more, and the biggest of the day is Toronto Maple Leafs against New York Rangers in the NHL. This is the day in sections: what is at stake, which favourites look fragile, where our prices and the market split, and the full schedule with a pick for every game.
The big one: Toronto Maple Leafs v New York Rangers
Toronto Maple Leafs49.2%5-4
New York Rangers50.8%Rangers to win · 50.8%Why it matters: Maple Leafs sit 18th (5-4), Rangers 8th (7-3).
New York Rangers are a narrow favourite at 50.8% against Toronto Maple Leafs at 49.2%. Form: Toronto Maple Leafs WWLLL, New York Rangers WLLWW (most recent first).
Playoff games, table clashes and streaks
- OFI Crete v Bayer Leverkusen (Europa League, 16:45 UTC): OFI Crete sit 18th (3 pts), Leverkusen 2nd (6 pts); OFI Crete have lost 3 in a row; Leverkusen have won 5 in a row. Model: Leverkusen 62.1%.
- Pittsburgh Penguins v Florida Panthers (NHL, 23:00 UTC): Penguins sit 28th (3-6), Panthers 16th (5-3); Penguins have lost 4 in a row. Model: Panthers 54.7%.
- New Jersey Devils v Anaheim Ducks (NHL, 23:00 UTC): Devils sit 14th (5-4), Ducks 21st (4-5); Ducks have lost 4 in a row. Model: Devils 58%.
- Olympiacos v Sparta Prague (Europa League, 19:00 UTC): Olympiacos sit 10th (6 pts), Sparta 11th (4 pts); Olympiacos have won 5 in a row. Model: Olympiacos 73.2%.
- Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen (Europa League, 16:45 UTC): Dinamo Zagreb sit 14th (4 pts), NEC 27th (1 pts); NEC have drawn 4 in a row. Model: Dinamo Zagreb 67.7%.
- Al Ahli v Al Khaleej (Saudi Pro League, 18:00 UTC): Al Ahli sit 5th (18 pts), Al Khaleej 10th (12 pts); Al Ahli have won 3 in a row. Model: Al Ahli 73.9%.
Where the model and the bookmakers disagree
A gap of five points or more between our probability and the de-vigged market price is where a prediction becomes interesting. 6 games clear that bar today.
| Match | Pick | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga v KAA Gent | Braga | 64.4% | 52.4% | +12 |
| Pafos v Riga FC | Pafos | 73.1% | 62.3% | +10.8 |
| AGF v Egnatia | AGF | 78.1% | 68.3% | +9.8 |
| Ferencvaros v Torreense | Ferencvaros | 86.8% | 77.8% | +9 |
| Lech Poznan v Sunderland | Sunderland | 66.7% | 58.3% | +8.4 |
| TSG Hoffenheim v Lyon | Hoffenheim | 58.3% | 50% | +8.3 |
A positive gap means the model is more confident than the market, which over a season is where the edge, if any, has to come from. A negative gap is a favourite the model likes less than the bookmakers do.
Upset watch
- Besiktas (42.8%) over Crystal Palace. Draw 27.2%, C Palace 30%.
- Al Hazem (47%) over Al Fayha, with Al Hazem on a 2-game losing run. Draw 26.6%, Al Fayha 26.4%.
- AS Monaco (44.7%) over SC Freiburg. Draw 27.9%, Freiburg 27.4%.
- AFC Bournemouth (47.8%) over AC Milan, who have won 2 straight. Draw 27.7%, Milan 24.5%.
- Anderlecht (49.4%) over Jagiellonia Bialystok. Draw 34.8%, Jagiellonia 15.8%.
Goals markets
- Over 2.5 lean: Besiktas v Crystal Palace, 94% (expected goals 3.2 and 2.9)
- Over 2.5 lean: AS Monaco v SC Freiburg, 89.6% (expected goals 3.2 and 2.1)
- Over 2.5 lean: TSG Hoffenheim v Lyon, 80.8% (expected goals 1.2 and 3.2)
- Under 2.5 lean: AGF v Egnatia, 91.3%
- Under 2.5 lean: Viktoria Plzen v Levski Sofia, 87.7%
- Both teams to score: Besiktas v Crystal Palace is the strongest at 90.7%
Yesterday in one line
50 of 75 picks landed (66.7%), against a running 56.5% over 1130 settled predictions. The full review, including the misses, is in the model review. Read the review
Every game today, 59 predictions
- 08:00 UTC England v Sri Lanka (Pakistan ODI Tri-Series): ENG 60.2%
- 08:00 UTC Namibia v Ireland (Ireland tour of Namibia 2026/27): NAM 56%
- 08:15 UTC Australia Women v New Zealand Women (New Zealand Women tour of Australia 2026/27): AUS-W 90.5%
- 12:05 UTC Valentin Vacherot v Luca Van Assche (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): V. Vacherot 72%
- 13:20 UTC David Goffin v Alex Michelsen (ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open): A. Michelsen 77.2%
- 13:40 UTC Al Hazem v Al Fayha (Saudi Pro League): Al Hazem 47%, likely 1-0
- 14:00 UTC Pierre-Hugues Herbert v Taylor Fritz (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): T. Fritz 81.7%
- 14:30 UTC Kairat Almaty v Panathinaikos (Conference League): Panathinaikos 68.1%, likely 0-1
- 14:30 UTC Alexander Bublik v Fabian Marozsan (ATP Almaty Open): A. Bublik 67.2%
- 14:45 UTC Al Fateh v Al Shabab (Saudi Pro League): Al Shabab 48.6%, likely 1-2
- 15:00 UTC Damir Dzumhur v Zizou Bergs (ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open): Z. Bergs 68.3%
- 16:45 UTC Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar (Europa League): AZ Alkmaar 75.6%, likely 0-2
- 16:45 UTC Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen (Europa League): Dinamo Zagreb 67.7%, likely 2-0
- 16:45 UTC Ferencvaros v Torreense (Europa League): Ferencvaros 86.8%, likely 2-1
- 16:45 UTC Juventus v Stade Rennais (Europa League): Juventus 77.1%, likely 1-0
- 16:45 UTC Lech Poznan v Sunderland (Europa League): Sunderland 66.7%, likely 0-3
- 16:45 UTC OFI Crete v Bayer Leverkusen (Europa League): Leverkusen 62.1%, likely 0-2
- 16:45 UTC SK Sturm Graz v Marseille (Europa League): Marseille 60.2%, likely 0-1
- 16:45 UTC Union St.-Gilloise v Hapoel Be'er (Europa League): Union SG 73.4%, likely 1-0
- 16:45 UTC FC Nordsjælland v CSKA Sofia (Conference League): Nordsjælland 74.5%, likely 1-0
- 16:45 UTC Getafe v FC Lugano (Conference League): Getafe 56.7%, likely 2-1
- 16:45 UTC Iberia 1999 v Mjällby AIF (Conference League): Mjällby 49.9%, likely 0-2
- 16:45 UTC Inter D'Escaldes v CSU Craiova (Conference League): CSU Craiova 72.3%, likely 0-1
- 16:45 UTC Jablonec v Brighton & Hove Albion (Conference League): Brighton 84.8%, likely 0-3
- 16:45 UTC Kauno Zalgiris v SK Brann (Conference League): SK Brann 64.9%, likely 0-3
- 16:45 UTC Pafos v Riga FC (Conference League): Pafos 73.1%
- 16:45 UTC Red Star Belgrade v F.C. København (Conference League): Red Star 50.8%
- 16:45 UTC Trabzonspor v Heart of Midlothian (Conference League): Trabzonspor 82.6%, likely 2-1
- 17:00 UTC Flavio Cobolli v Stan Wawrinka (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): F. Cobolli 71.8%
- 18:00 UTC Al Ahli v Al Khaleej (Saudi Pro League): Al Ahli 73.9%, likely 3-0
- 18:30 UTC Kyrian Jacquet v Brandon Nakashima (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): B. Nakashima 64.8%
- 19:00 UTC AFC Bournemouth v AC Milan (Europa League): Bournemouth 47.8%, likely 1-0
- 19:00 UTC Besiktas v Crystal Palace (Europa League): Besiktas 42.8%, likely 3-2
- 19:00 UTC Celtic v Celta Vigo (Europa League): Celtic 39.6%, likely 2-1
- 19:00 UTC Jagiellonia Bialystok v Anderlecht (Europa League): Anderlecht 49.4%
- 19:00 UTC Lillestrom v Real Sociedad (Europa League): Real Sociedad 71%, likely 0-1
- 19:00 UTC NK Celje v RB Salzburg (Europa League): RB Salzburg 69.7%, likely 0-1
- 19:00 UTC Olympiacos v Sparta Prague (Europa League): Olympiacos 73.2%, likely 1-0
- 19:00 UTC Omonia Nicosia v Benfica (Europa League): Benfica 76.1%, likely 0-1
- 19:00 UTC TSG Hoffenheim v Lyon (Europa League): Hoffenheim 58.3%
- 19:00 UTC Viktoria Plzen v Levski Sofia (Europa League): Viktoria Plzen 62.1%, likely 1-0
- 19:00 UTC AGF v Egnatia (Conference League): AGF 78.1%, likely 1-0
- 19:00 UTC Ajax Amsterdam v Atalanta (Conference League): Ajax 52.5%
- 19:00 UTC AS Monaco v SC Freiburg (Conference League): Monaco 44.7%, likely 3-2
- 19:00 UTC Borac Banja Luka v KuPS Kuopio (Conference League): Borac 60.6%, likely 2-1
- 19:00 UTC Braga v KAA Gent (Conference League): Braga 64.4%
- 19:00 UTC FC Midtjylland v Sint-Truidense (Conference League): Sint-Truidense 55.7%, likely 0-1
- 19:00 UTC FC Thun v Hajduk Split (Conference League): Hajduk Split 51.3%, likely 0-1
- 19:00 UTC Lincoln Red Imps v FC Twente (Conference League): FC Twente 84%, likely 0-1
- 23:00 UTC Philadelphia 76ers v Cleveland Cavaliers (NBA): 76ers 55.9%
- 23:00 UTC App State Mountaineers v James Madison Dukes (NCAA Football): App State 86.6%
- 23:00 UTC Kennesaw State Owls v Liberty Flames (NCAA Football): Kennesaw St 55.5%
- 23:00 UTC Boston Bruins v Nashville Predators (NHL): Bruins 63.3%
- 23:00 UTC Toronto Maple Leafs v New York Rangers (NHL): Rangers 50.8%
- 23:00 UTC Ottawa Senators v San Jose Sharks (NHL): Senators 63.5%
- 23:00 UTC New Jersey Devils v Anaheim Ducks (NHL): Devils 58%
- 23:00 UTC Pittsburgh Penguins v Florida Panthers (NHL): Panthers 54.7%
- 23:30 UTC Memphis Tigers v East Carolina Pirates (NCAA Football): Memphis 63.6%
- 23:30 UTC New York Islanders v Los Angeles Kings (NHL): Islanders 73.9%
How to read these numbers
Every probability is the output of a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where they exist, with a form and record model for the American leagues. A 55% favourite loses almost half the time, so the percentages are the point, not the pick. Every call is locked before kick-off and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.