Liverpool v Arsenal headlines 1 November: 111 predictions, the stakes and where the value is

111 games across 40 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.

Sunday, 1 November 2026 brings 111 games across MLB, J1 League, India tour of New Zealand 2026/27, A-League Men and 36 more. 1 of them is a playoff game, 42 involve a team on a run of three or more, and the biggest of the day is Liverpool against Arsenal in the Premier League. This is the day in sections: what is at stake, which favourites look fragile, where our prices and the market split, and the full schedule with a pick for every game.

The big one: Liverpool v Arsenal

Liverpool29.7%vArsenal44.5%Arsenal to win · 44.5%

Why it matters: Liverpool sit 5th (15 pts), Arsenal 2nd (21 pts); Liverpool have won 4 in a row.

Arsenal are a marginal favourite at 44.5% (draw 25.8%, Liverpool 29.7%). Expected goals come out at 0.9 for Liverpool and 1.4 for Arsenal, with 0-1 the most likely exact score. The model expects a tight game, Under 2.5 at 61.7%, and both teams to score is unlikely at 44.4%. Bookmakers price Arsenal at about 40.2%, so the model is 4.3 points more confident than the market. Form: Liverpool WWWWL, Arsenal WDWWW (most recent first).

The two sides have met 3 times recently: Liverpool won 1, Arsenal won 0 and 2 were draws, averaging 1.67 goals a game with both teams scoring in 33.3% of them.

Team news: Messi Cup 2026: How to watch in the UK, who is taking part, when and what is it?. The second edition of the Messi Cup is almost here. Here's everything you need to know about the tournament.

Playoff games, table clashes and streaks

• Jacksonville Jaguars v Indianapolis Colts (NFL, 18:00 UTC): Jaguars sit 3rd (4-2), Colts 25th (2-5); Colts have lost 3 in a row. Model: Jaguars 57.1%.
• Racing Santander v Real Madrid (La Liga, 15:15 UTC): Racing sit 15th (11 pts), Real Madrid 3rd (24 pts); Real Madrid have won 5 in a row. Model: Real Madrid 78.2%.
• Boca Juniors v River Plate (Liga Profesional, 18:00 UTC): a top-of-the-table meeting, 3rd against 4th (27 pts v 23 pts). Model: Boca 37.9%.
• Denver Broncos v Kansas City Chiefs (NFL, 21:25 UTC): Broncos sit 16th (5-2), Chiefs 6th (5-1); Broncos have won 3 in a row. Model: Broncos 60.2%.
• Detroit Lions v Minnesota Vikings (NFL, 18:00 UTC): Lions sit 9th (4-2), Vikings 2nd (6-0); Vikings have won 6 in a row. Model: Lions 52.1%.
• New York Jets v Las Vegas Raiders (NFL, 18:00 UTC): Jets sit 22nd (2-5), Raiders 23rd (3-4); Raiders have lost 4 in a row. Model: Jets 52.1%.

Where the model and the bookmakers disagree

A gap of five points or more between our probability and the de-vigged market price is where a prediction becomes interesting. 6 games clear that bar today.

A positive gap means the model is more confident than the market, which over a season is where the edge, if any, has to come from. A negative gap is a favourite the model likes less than the bookmakers do.

Upset watch

• Eldense (43.4%) over Granada, who have won 4 straight. Draw 26.1%, Granada 30.5%.
• Atlanta United FC (41.1%) over Toronto FC, with Atlanta on a 3-game losing run. Draw 25.8%, Toronto 33%.
• Arsenal (44.5%) over Liverpool, who have won 4 straight. Draw 25.8%, Liverpool 29.7%.
• Athletic Club (41.6%) over Real Sociedad, who have won 3 straight. Draw 26.9%, Real Sociedad 31.5%.
• Detroit Lions (52.1%) over Minnesota Vikings, who have won 6 straight. Draw 6%, Vikings 41.9%.

Goals markets

• Over 2.5 lean: Frosinone v Torino, 84.3% (expected goals 3.2 and 1.5)
• Over 2.5 lean: Racing Santander v Real Madrid, 80.5% (expected goals 1.1 and 3.2)
• Over 2.5 lean: Palermo v Vicenza, 78.5% (expected goals 3.1 and 1)
• Under 2.5 lean: Belgrano (Córdoba) v Barracas Central, 78.2%
• Under 2.5 lean: Panathinaikos v AEK Athens, 71.1%
• Both teams to score: Frosinone v Torino is the strongest at 74.9%

Yesterday in one line

138 of 224 picks landed (61.6%), against a running 56.7% over 2255 settled predictions. The full review, including the misses, is in the model review. Read the review

Every game today, 111 predictions

• 00:00 UTC Milwaukee Brewers v Tampa Bay Rays (MLB): Brewers 55.4%
• 06:00 UTC Machida Zelvia v Gamba Osaka (J1 League): Machida Zelvia 49.6%, likely 2-0
• 07:00 UTC New Zealand v India (India tour of New Zealand 2026/27): IND 57.1%
• 07:00 UTC Perth Glory FC v Adelaide United FC (A-League Men): Adelaide Utd 42.2%, likely 1-2
• 07:30 UTC Namibia v Ireland (Ireland tour of Namibia 2026/27): NAM 53.8%
• 08:00 UTC Dolphins v Boland (South Africa Domestic T20/Pro20): BOL 50.7%
• 08:10 UTC Sydney Sixers Women v Hobart Hurricanes Women (Women's Big Bash League): SS-W 64.4%
• 08:30 UTC Lilli Tagger v Harriet Dart (WTA Guangzhou Open): L. Tagger 56.3%
• 10:30 UTC Amed SFK v Eyupspor (Super Lig): Amed SFK 82.6%, likely 3-0
• 11:15 UTC PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag (Eredivisie): PEC Zwolle 39.1%, likely 2-1
• 11:30 UTC Como v Venezia (Serie A): Como 64.2%, likely 2-0
• 12:30 UTC Lions v Titans (South Africa Domestic T20/Pro20): LIONS 58.5%
• 12:30 UTC Hannover 96 v Dynamo Dresden (2. Bundesliga): Hannover 44%, likely 2-1
• 12:30 UTC SpVgg Greuther Fürth v Holstein Kiel (2. Bundesliga): Greuther Furth 37%, likely 1-0
• 12:30 UTC St. Pauli v 1. FC Nürnberg (2. Bundesliga): St. Pauli 46.5%, likely 1-0
• 12:30 UTC Cercle Brugge KSV v Antwerp (Belgian Pro League): Cercle Brugge 48.9%, likely 2-1
• 13:00 UTC Getafe v Sevilla (La Liga): Sevilla 44.7%, likely 0-1
• 13:00 UTC Falkirk v Celtic (Scottish Premiership): Celtic 71.9%, likely 0-2
• 13:00 UTC Eldense v Granada (LaLiga 2): Eldense 43.4%, likely 2-1
• 13:00 UTC Istanbul Basaksehir v Samsunspor (Super Lig): Istanbul BB 59.7%, likely 2-0
• 13:00 UTC Trabzonspor v Gaziantep FK (Super Lig): Trabzonspor 80.9%, likely 2-0
• 13:00 UTC Odense Boldklub v Silkeborg IF (Danish Superliga): Odense 52.6%, likely 2-1
• 13:00 UTC Viborg FF v AC Horsens (Danish Superliga): Viborg 70.8%, likely 2-1
• 13:00 UTC Djurgården v Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan): Djurgården 79.3%, likely 2-0
• 13:00 UTC Malmö FF v Hammarby IF (Allsvenskan): Hammarby 64.1%, likely 0-1
• 13:00 UTC Alex de Minaur v Carlos Alcaraz (ATP Erste Bank Open): C. Alcaraz 76.2%
• 13:30 UTC Excelsior v FC Twente (Eredivisie): FC Twente 63%, likely 1-2
• 13:30 UTC Telstar v FC Utrecht (Eredivisie): FC Utrecht 43.4%, likely 1-2
• 13:30 UTC RB Salzburg v Austria Lustenau (Austrian Bundesliga): RB Salzburg 89.9%, likely 3-0
• 13:30 UTC Wolfsberger v SK Sturm Graz (Austrian Bundesliga): Sturm Graz 66.2%, likely 0-1
• 13:30 UTC SK Brann v Molde (Eliteserien): Molde 49%, likely 1-2
• 14:00 UTC Frosinone v Torino (Serie A): Frosinone 34.8%, likely 3-1
• 14:00 UTC Lazio v Cagliari (Serie A): Lazio 63%, likely 2-0
• 14:00 UTC Strasbourg v AJ Auxerre (Ligue 1): Strasbourg 49.3%, likely 2-1
• 14:00 UTC Sheffield Wednesday v Blackpool (League One): Sheffield Wed 56.5%, likely 2-0
• 14:00 UTC Arezzo v Ascoli (Serie B): Ascoli 53.5%, likely 0-2
• 14:00 UTC Empoli v Juve Stabia (Serie B): Juve Stabia 46.2%, likely 0-1
• 14:00 UTC US Avellino v Pisa (Serie B): Pisa 47.6%, likely 1-2
• 14:00 UTC Alice Tubello v Julia Grabher (WTA Curitiba Open): J. Grabher 62.5%
• 14:00 UTC Noma Noha Akugue v Alina Charaeva (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): A. Charaeva 64.8%
• 14:30 UTC 1. FC Union Berlin v FC Cologne (Bundesliga): Cologne 39.9%, likely 1-2
• 14:30 UTC Jiri Lehecka v Valentin Vacherot (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): J. Lehecka 54.1%
• 15:00 UTC Sint-Truidense v OH Leuven (Belgian Pro League): Sint-Truidense 60.3%, likely 2-1
• 15:00 UTC Levadiakos v Aris (Greek Super League): Aris 55.9%, likely 0-1
• 15:00 UTC FC Nordsjælland v FC Midtjylland (Danish Superliga): Midtjylland 44%, likely 1-2
• 15:00 UTC Huachipato v La Serena (Primera Division): Huachipato 38.9%, likely 2-1
• 15:15 UTC Racing Santander v Real Madrid (La Liga): Real Madrid 78.2%, likely 1-3
• 15:15 UTC Ceuta v Sporting Gijón (LaLiga 2): Ceuta 43.8%
• 15:30 UTC Arouca v C.D. Nacional (Primeira Liga): Arouca 46.5%, likely 2-0
• 15:30 UTC BK Häcken v IFK Göteborg (Allsvenskan): BK Häcken 58.1%, likely 2-0
• 15:30 UTC IF Elfsborg v Örgryte IS (Allsvenskan): Elfsborg 76.3%, likely 2-0
• 15:30 UTC Västerås SK v IF Brommapojkarna (Allsvenskan): Västerås 51.4%, likely 2-1
• 15:30 UTC Universidad Católica v Universidad de Chile (Primera Division): U Católica 38.7%
• 15:45 UTC FC Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie): FC Groningen 47.6%, likely 2-1
• 16:00 UTC Kasimpasa v Besiktas (Super Lig): Besiktas 67.5%, likely 1-2
• 16:00 UTC Panetolikos v OFI Crete (Greek Super League): OFI Crete 47.2%, likely 1-2
• 16:00 UTC Austria Vienna v Rapid Vienna (Austrian Bundesliga): Vienna 72.1%
• 16:00 UTC IK Start v Lillestrom (Eliteserien): Lillestrom 46.7%, likely 1-2
• 16:00 UTC KFUM Oslo v Hamarkameratene (Eliteserien): KFUM 48.4%, likely 2-1
• 16:00 UTC Sarpsborg FK v Kristiansund BK (Eliteserien): Sarpsborg FK 70.5%, likely 2-0
• 16:15 UTC Lyon v Angers (Ligue 1): Lyon 64.5%, likely 2-0
• 16:15 UTC Paris FC v AS Monaco (Ligue 1): Paris FC 37.9%, likely 2-1
• 16:15 UTC Hellas Verona v Carrarese (Serie B): Verona 68.5%, likely 2-1
• 16:30 UTC Liverpool v Arsenal (Premier League): Arsenal 44.5%, likely 0-1
• 16:30 UTC Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburg SV (Bundesliga): Frankfurt 59.3%, likely 2-1
• 17:00 UTC Lecce v Genoa (Serie A): Genoa 45.7%, likely 0-1
• 17:00 UTC PAOK v Asteras Tripoli (Greek Super League): PAOK 81.9%, likely 2-0
• 17:00 UTC Brøndby IF v AGF (Danish Superliga): Brøndby 50.4%, likely 2-1
• 17:30 UTC Elche v Valencia (La Liga): Elche 35.8%, likely 1-0
• 17:30 UTC Burgos v Castellón (LaLiga 2): Castellón 55%, likely 0-1
• 17:30 UTC Lommel SK v KAA Gent (Belgian Pro League): KAA Gent 63.7%, likely 0-1
• 17:30 UTC Panathinaikos v AEK Athens (Greek Super League): Panathinaikos 47.3%, likely 1-0
• 18:00 UTC Cobresal v Everton CD (Primera Division): Everton CD 43.6%, likely 1-2
• 18:00 UTC Académico de Viseu v Rio Ave (Primeira Liga): Académico 39.9%, likely 2-0
• 18:00 UTC Maritimo v Santa Clara (Primeira Liga): Santa Clara 47.3%, likely 0-2
• 18:00 UTC Boca Juniors v River Plate (Liga Profesional): Boca 37.9%, likely 1-0
• 18:00 UTC Buffalo Bills v Baltimore Ravens (NFL): Bills 56.2%
• 18:00 UTC Cincinnati Bengals v Tennessee Titans (NFL): Bengals 56.1%
• 18:00 UTC Dallas Cowboys v Arizona Cardinals (NFL): Cowboys 57.9%
• 18:00 UTC Detroit Lions v Minnesota Vikings (NFL): Lions 52.1%
• 18:00 UTC New York Jets v Las Vegas Raiders (NFL): Jets 52.1%
• 18:00 UTC Pittsburgh Steelers v Cleveland Browns (NFL): Steelers 57.8%
• 18:00 UTC Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Atlanta Falcons (NFL): Buccaneers 52.1%
• 18:00 UTC Jacksonville Jaguars v Indianapolis Colts (NFL): Jaguars 57.1%
• 18:00 UTC Carolina Hurricanes v Winnipeg Jets (NHL): Hurricanes 72.8%
• 18:15 UTC Royal Charleroi SC v RAAL La Louvière (Belgian Pro League): Royal Charleroi 68%, likely 2-0
• 18:15 UTC Vålerenga v Tromso (Eliteserien): Tromso 43.3%, likely 1-2
• 18:30 UTC Palermo v Vicenza (Serie B): Palermo 66%, likely 3-1
• 19:45 UTC Juventus v Napoli (Serie A): Juventus 40.9%, likely 1-0
• 19:45 UTC Marseille v Toulouse (Ligue 1): Marseille 44.8%, likely 2-1
• 20:00 UTC Athletic Club v Real Sociedad (La Liga): Athletic 41.6%, likely 2-1
• 20:00 UTC Tenerife v FC Andorra (LaLiga 2): Tenerife 52.2%, likely 2-1
• 20:30 UTC Braga v FC Famalicao (Primeira Liga): Braga 55.2%, likely 1-0
• 20:30 UTC Orlando Magic v Boston Celtics (NBA): Magic 55%
• 20:30 UTC Washington Capitals v Minnesota Wild (NHL): Capitals 51.5%
• 20:30 UTC Vancouver Whitecaps v Seattle Sounders FC (MLS): Vancouver 54.6%, likely 1-0
• 21:00 UTC Philadelphia Flyers v Utah Mammoth (NHL): Mammoth 66.7%
• 21:05 UTC Deportivo Cali v Boyacá Chicó FC (Primera A): Cali 88.5%, likely 1-0
• 21:05 UTC Los Angeles Rams v Los Angeles Chargers (NFL): Rams 53.1%
• 21:25 UTC Denver Broncos v Kansas City Chiefs (NFL): Broncos 60.2%
• 21:25 UTC Miami Dolphins v New England Patriots (NFL): Patriots 49%
• 21:30 UTC Atlanta United FC v Toronto FC (MLS): Atlanta 41.1%, likely 2-1
• 21:30 UTC Nashville SC v Red Bull New York (MLS): Nashville 54.7%, likely 2-0
• 21:30 UTC Belgrano (Córdoba) v Barracas Central (Liga Profesional): Belgrano 53%, likely 1-0
• 21:30 UTC Newell's Old Boys v Unión (Santa Fe) (Liga Profesional): Newell's 48.5%, likely 1-0
• 22:00 UTC Indiana Pacers v Brooklyn Nets (NBA): Pacers 57.1%
• 22:00 UTC Tatjana Maria v Bianca Andreescu (WTA Queretaro Open): B. Andreescu 51.8%
• 23:00 UTC Santos v Necaxa (Liga MX): Santos 46.4%, likely 2-1
• 23:00 UTC New York Rangers v Edmonton Oilers (NHL): Oilers 53.7%
• 23:10 UTC Independiente Medellín v Alianza FC (Primera A): Ind. Medellín 75.5%, likely 2-0
• 23:45 UTC Lanús v Gimnasia (Mendoza) (Liga Profesional): Lanús 59.8%, likely 1-0

How to read these numbers

Every probability is the output of a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where they exist, with a form and record model for the American leagues. A 55% favourite loses almost half the time, so the percentages are the point, not the pick. Every call is locked before kick-off and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.