Articles: predictions, previews and model reviews

Written every day from the model's own numbers: the matches that matter, round-by-round league previews and an honest review of how yesterday's picks went.

• How the model did: 40 of 66 right (60.6%) on 9 October 2026 — 66 settled matches, 40 correct picks, one real upset (West Indies over India) and the honest numbers behind them. (2026-10-10)
• Aston Villa v Brentford headlines 10 October: 169 predictions, the stakes and where the value is — 169 games across 33 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers. (2026-10-10)
• Champions League predictions: every match from 13 October to 14 October 2026 — 11 Champions League fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 5 clear favourites, 6 games the model calls close. (2026-10-09)
• Singapore Grand Prix prediction: Andrea Kimi Antonelli favourite at 27.7% — Win and podium probabilities for every driver at the Singapore Grand Prix, the championship picture and what the grid changes. (2026-10-09)
• How the model did: 13 of 25 right (52%) on 8 October 2026 — 25 settled matches, 13 correct picks, one real upset (a draw over Flamengo) and the honest numbers behind them. (2026-10-09)
• Mavericks v Rockets headlines 9 October: 20 predictions, the stakes and where the value is — 20 games across 15 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers. (2026-10-09)
• How the model did: 11 of 22 right (50%) on 7 October 2026 — 22 settled matches, 11 correct picks, one real upset (a draw over Red Bull Bragantino) and the honest numbers behind them. (2026-10-08)
• Knicks v Wizards headlines 8 October: 16 predictions, the stakes and where the value is — 16 games across 4 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers. (2026-10-08)
• NFL predictions: every match from 9 October to 12 October 2026 — 14 NFL fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 0 clear favourites, 14 games the model calls close. (2026-10-07)
• Serie A: Inter stand out as strongest favourite — Four sides sit at 65 per cent or higher to win their matches this weekend while Como versus Roma remains finely balanced. (2026-10-07)
• Braves hold narrow edge over Dodgers in NLDS Game 4 — Our numbers mark Atlanta a marginal favourite against Los Angeles while White Sox and Dream also carry slight edges in their series games. (2026-10-07)
• Model hits 40.5 per cent on 37 settled predictions — Fifteen correct calls out of 37 left the running total at 32 of 65 settled picks since launch. (2026-10-07)
• Premier League preview for 10-11 October — Arsenal stand out as the only strong favourite while eight other matches look open according to the model. (2026-10-07)
• La Liga preview: Barcelona and Real Madrid lead the way — Our numbers single out four strong home favourites across the nine matches scheduled between Friday and Sunday. (2026-10-07)
• Bundesliga preview: five strong favourites line up — Bayern Munich top a group of clear favourites as the model identifies five sides at 65 per cent or better across nine fixtures. (2026-10-07)
• PSG face Le Mans as three sides top 65 per cent — Paris Saint-Germain sit at 92.5 per cent to beat Le Mans while Lille and Rennes also rank as strong favourites this weekend. (2026-10-07)
• NBA preview: Celtics hold edge over 76ers — Boston Celtics sit at 59.8 per cent to beat Philadelphia 76ers in the main fixture across 19 NBA matches from 8 to 12 October. (2026-10-07)
• Flamengo hold narrow edge in Rio derby — The model gives Flamengo a 59.6 per cent chance of beating Fluminense while Vasco da Gama and São Paulo emerge as the round's two strong favourites. (2026-10-07)
• MLS round features two strong favourites — Inter Miami CF and Philadelphia Union stand out among 15 fixtures spread across Saturday and Sunday. (2026-10-07)
• Liga MX fixtures all open according to the model — Nine Liga MX matches from 10 to 12 October feature no side above 60 per cent and several coin-flip contests decided by small edges in recent results. (2026-10-07)
• Eredivisie: four strong favourites this round — Ajax lead the way at 82.6 per cent while PSV, FC Twente and FC Utrecht also sit above 65 per cent in the model. (2026-10-07)
• Primeira Liga: Porto and Benfica lead strong favourites — The model identifies FC Porto at 80.7 per cent and Benfica at 87.2 per cent as the two clearest favourites across eight Primeira Liga matches scheduled from 9 to 11 October 2026. (2026-10-07)
• Championship preview: West Ham stand out among tight games — One side sits clear of the pack this round while most matches offer little separation on the numbers. (2026-10-07)
• Liga Profesional: River hold 89% chance to win — The model sees River Plate as strong favourites while only one other side reaches clear favourite status this round. (2026-10-07)