Milan v Inter Milan headlines 31 October: 186 predictions, the stakes and where the value is

186 games across 45 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.

Saturday, 31 October 2026 brings 186 games across MLB, Women's Big Bash League, J1 League, WTA Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis and 41 more. 1 of them is a playoff game, 30 involve a team on a run of three or more, and the biggest of the day is AC Milan against Internazionale in the Serie A. This is the day in sections: what is at stake, which favourites look fragile, where our prices and the market split, and the full schedule with a pick for every game.

The big one: AC Milan v Internazionale

AC Milan23.1%vInternazionale51.2%Inter Milan to win · 51.2%

Why it matters: Milan sit 5th (18 pts), Inter Milan 1st (25 pts); Inter Milan have won 4 in a row.

Internazionale are a narrow favourite at 51.2% (draw 25.7%, AC Milan 23.1%). Expected goals come out at 1.3 for AC Milan and 1.9 for Internazionale, with 1-2 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (62.8%), and both teams to score is likely at 63.8%. On Elo ratings Internazionale are the clearly stronger side (100 points of edge including home advantage). Form: AC Milan LWLWW, Internazionale WWWWL (most recent first).

The two sides have met 3 times recently: AC Milan won 2, Internazionale won 0 and 1 was a draw, averaging 1.33 goals a game with both teams scoring in 33.3% of them.

Team news: USMNT star Christian Pulisic signs new AC Milan contract through 2031. United States star Christian Pulisic has signed a new contract with AC Milan through 2031.

Playoff games, table clashes and streaks

• Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga, 17:30 UTC): a top-of-the-table meeting, 1st against 2nd (17 pts v 17 pts). Model: Bayern 71.5%.
• Manchester City v Brighton & Hove Albion (Premier League, 15:00 UTC): a top-of-the-table meeting, 1st against 3rd (21 pts v 16 pts). Model: Man City 55.9%.
• Aston Villa v Fulham (Premier League, 20:00 UTC): Aston Villa sit 9th (11 pts), Fulham 15th (8 pts); Aston Villa have won 4 in a row. Model: Aston Villa 44.8%.
• AFC Bournemouth v Leeds United (Premier League, 15:00 UTC): Bournemouth sit 13th (9 pts), Leeds 7th (11 pts); Bournemouth have won 4 in a row. Model: Bournemouth 41.7%.
• Utah Jazz v Portland Trail Blazers (NBA, 19:00 UTC): Jazz sit 23rd (1-4), Trail Blazers 7th (3-1); Jazz have lost 3 in a row. Model: Jazz 52.1%.
• Ajax Amsterdam v AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie, 20:00 UTC): Ajax sit 2nd (21 pts), AZ Alkmaar 5th (20 pts); Ajax have won 3 in a row. Model: Ajax 52.8%.

Where the model and the bookmakers disagree

A gap of five points or more between our probability and the de-vigged market price is where a prediction becomes interesting. 6 games clear that bar today.

A positive gap means the model is more confident than the market, which over a season is where the edge, if any, has to come from. A negative gap is a favourite the model likes less than the bookmakers do.

Upset watch

• Estrela (42.5%) over Moreirense, with Estrela on a 3-game losing run. Draw 30.8%, Moreirense 26.7%.
• Burnley (42.3%) over Portsmouth, with Burnley on a 2-game losing run. Draw 27.3%, Portsmouth 30.4%.
• Plymouth Argyle (40.4%) over Reading, who have won 2 straight. Draw 27.3%, Reading 32.3%.
• Çorum FK (44%) over Erzurum BB, who have won 2 straight. Draw 28.8%, Erzurum 27.2%.
• St. Louis CITY SC (44.2%) over San Diego FC, with St. Louis on a 3-game losing run. Draw 28.6%, San Diego 27.2%.

Goals markets

• Over 2.5 lean: SC Cambuur v Go Ahead Eagles, 84.5% (expected goals 2.6 and 2)
• Over 2.5 lean: VfL Wolfsburg v VfL Osnabruck, 83.4% (expected goals 3 and 1.5)
• Over 2.5 lean: Charlotte FC v Orlando City SC, 82.4% (expected goals 2.7 and 1.8)
• Under 2.5 lean: Salford City v Exeter City, 85.7%
• Under 2.5 lean: Deportivo Riestra v Talleres (Córdoba), 82.1%
• Both teams to score: SC Cambuur v Go Ahead Eagles is the strongest at 81.3%

Yesterday in one line

60 of 105 picks landed (57.1%), against a running 56.2% over 2037 settled predictions. The full review, including the misses, is in the model review. Read the review

Every game today, 186 predictions

• 00:00 UTC Milwaukee Brewers v Tampa Bay Rays (MLB): Brewers 55.4%
• 04:40 UTC Adelaide Strikers Women v Melbourne Stars Women (Women's Big Bash League): AS-W 62.1%
• 05:00 UTC Fagiano Okayama v FC Tokyo (J1 League): Tokyo 55.3%, likely 0-1
• 05:00 UTC Kyoto Sanga v Shimizu S-Pulse (J1 League): Kyoto Sanga 47%, likely 1-0
• 05:00 UTC Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima (J1 League): Sanfreece 70.1%, likely 0-2
• 05:20 UTC Diana Shnaider v Mia Pohankova (WTA Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis): D. Shnaider 64.1%
• 05:20 UTC Oman v Sri Lanka (Hong Kong International Cricket Sixes): SL 63.7%
• 05:30 UTC United Arab Emirates v Netherlands (ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2): NED 72.4%
• 06:00 UTC Kashima Antlers v Cerezo Osaka (J1 League): Kashima 55.5%, likely 2-1
• 06:00 UTC Vissel Kobe v Nagoya Grampus (J1 League): Vissel Kobe 54.9%, likely 2-0
• 06:00 UTC Melbourne City FC v Sydney FC (A-League Men): Sydney FC 37.6%, likely 0-1
• 06:15 UTC Hong Kong v Pakistan (Hong Kong International Cricket Sixes): PAK 66.3%
• 06:45 UTC Jersey v Qatar (CWC Challenge League Group A): JER 76.5%
• 06:45 UTC Kenya v Papua New Guinea (CWC Challenge League Group A): KENYA 52.1%
• 07:00 UTC Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa Red Diamonds (J1 League): Kashiwa 39.8%, likely 2-1
• 07:10 UTC Australia v United Arab Emirates (Hong Kong International Cricket Sixes): AUS 65.4%
• 08:00 UTC Pakistan v Sri Lanka (Pakistan ODI Tri-Series): PAK 57.3%
• 08:10 UTC Perth Scorchers Women v Melbourne Renegades Women (Women's Big Bash League): PS-W 55.6%
• 08:30 UTC Xinran Sun v Harriet Dart (WTA Guangzhou Open): X. Sun 58.3%
• 08:40 UTC Macarthur FC v Western Sydney Wanderers FC (A-League Men): Western Sydney 47.6%, likely 1-2
• 10:00 UTC Kaitlin Quevedo v Lilli Tagger (WTA Guangzhou Open): L. Tagger 53.9%
• 10:30 UTC Erzurum BB v Çorum FK (Super Lig): Çorum FK 44%, likely 1-2
• 12:00 UTC Kaiserslautern v Hertha Berlin (2. Bundesliga): Hertha 48.2%, likely 0-1
• 12:00 UTC SV Darmstadt 98 v 1. FC Magdeburg (2. Bundesliga): Magdeburg 47.6%, likely 1-2
• 12:00 UTC VfL Wolfsburg v VfL Osnabruck (2. Bundesliga): Wolfsburg 65.6%, likely 3-1
• 12:30 UTC Chelsea v Manchester United (Premier League): Chelsea 52.3%, likely 2-1
• 12:30 UTC Lincoln City v Birmingham City (Championship): Birmingham 48.7%, likely 0-1
• 12:30 UTC Norwich City v Watford (Championship): Norwich City 57.4%, likely 2-0
• 12:30 UTC Stoke City v Preston North End (Championship): Stoke 50.4%, likely 2-0
• 12:30 UTC Bradford City v Huddersfield Town (League One): Huddersfield 47.5%, likely 0-1
• 12:30 UTC Leyton Orient v Cambridge United (League One): Leyton Orient 36.7%, likely 2-1
• 12:30 UTC Plymouth Argyle v Reading (League One): Plymouth 40.4%, likely 2-1
• 12:30 UTC Grimsby Town v York City (League Two): Grimsby 41.4%, likely 2-1
• 12:30 UTC Port Vale v Rochdale (League Two): Port Vale 69.8%, likely 1-0
• 13:00 UTC Levante v Atlético Madrid (La Liga): Atlético 64.5%, likely 1-2
• 13:00 UTC Real Sociedad II v Girona (LaLiga 2): Girona 55.2%, likely 0-2
• 13:00 UTC Annecy v Montpellier (Ligue 2): Montpellier 48.6%, likely 0-1
• 13:00 UTC Kocaelispor v Caykur Rizespor (Super Lig): Caykur Rizespor 36.2%
• 13:30 UTC Al Taawoun v Al Ettifaq (Saudi Pro League): Al Taawoun 44.6%
• 13:30 UTC Anna Blinkova v Noma Noha Akugue (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): A. Blinkova 65.1%
• 14:00 UTC Bologna v Monza (Serie A): Bologna 51.4%, likely 2-1
• 14:00 UTC Cremonese v Benevento (Serie B): Benevento 44.2%, likely 0-1
• 14:00 UTC Modena v Mantova (Serie B): Modena 58.8%, likely 1-0
• 14:00 UTC Sudtirol v Cesena (Serie B): Sudtirol 42.9%, likely 1-0
• 14:00 UTC Valentin Vacherot v Taylor Fritz (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): T. Fritz 61.6%
• 14:00 UTC Daniil Medvedev v Carlos Alcaraz (ATP Erste Bank Open): C. Alcaraz 72.9%
• 14:00 UTC Julia Riera v Julia Grabher (WTA Curitiba Open): J. Grabher 62.6%
• 14:30 UTC Bayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga): Leverkusen 49.1%, likely 2-1
• 14:30 UTC Borussia Mönchengladbach v SC Paderborn 07 (Bundesliga): Gladbach 46%, likely 1-0
• 14:30 UTC FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg (Bundesliga): Freiburg 46.3%, likely 1-2
• 14:30 UTC Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig (Bundesliga): RB Leipzig 55.9%, likely 0-1
• 14:30 UTC Werder Bremen v TSG Hoffenheim (Bundesliga): Hoffenheim 44.1%, likely 1-2
• 14:55 UTC Al Fayha v Al Faisaly (Saudi Pro League): Al Faisaly 36%
• 15:00 UTC AFC Bournemouth v Leeds United (Premier League): Bournemouth 41.7%, likely 1-0
• 15:00 UTC Brentford v Nottingham Forest (Premier League): Brentford 40.8%, likely 1-0
• 15:00 UTC Coventry City v Sunderland (Premier League): Sunderland 46.1%, likely 0-1
• 15:00 UTC Hull City v Ipswich Town (Premier League): Ipswich 40%
• 15:00 UTC Manchester City v Brighton & Hove Albion (Premier League): Man City 55.9%, likely 2-1
• 15:00 UTC Bolton Wanderers v Bristol City (Championship): Bristol City 43.8%, likely 1-2
• 15:00 UTC Burnley v Portsmouth (Championship): Burnley 42.3%, likely 2-1
• 15:00 UTC Middlesbrough v Charlton Athletic (Championship): Boro 74.7%, likely 2-0
• 15:00 UTC Millwall v Derby County (Championship): Millwall 54%, likely 2-0
• 15:00 UTC Southampton v Queens Park Rangers (Championship): Southampton 44.4%, likely 2-1
• 15:00 UTC Swansea City v Blackburn Rovers (Championship): Swansea 52.4%, likely 1-0
• 15:00 UTC West Ham United v West Bromwich Albion (Championship): West Ham 54.8%, likely 2-0
• 15:00 UTC Wolverhampton Wanderers v Cardiff City (Championship): Wolves 56%, likely 2-1
• 15:00 UTC Barnsley v Oxford United (League One): Oxford Utd 44.3%, likely 0-2
• 15:00 UTC Leicester City v Stevenage (League One): Leicester 66.6%, likely 1-0
• 15:00 UTC Mansfield Town v Notts County (League One): Mansfield 53.7%, likely 1-0
• 15:00 UTC Milton Keynes Dons v Doncaster Rovers (League One): MK Dons 48.4%, likely 2-1
• 15:00 UTC Peterborough United v Luton Town (League One): Luton 54%, likely 1-2
• 15:00 UTC Stockport County v AFC Wimbledon (League One): Stockport 84.5%, likely 2-0
• 15:00 UTC Wigan Athletic v Bromley (League One): Wigan 54.4%, likely 1-0
• 15:00 UTC Wycombe Wanderers v Burton Albion (League One): Wycombe 70.9%, likely 2-1
• 15:00 UTC Accrington Stanley v Northampton Town (League Two): Accrington 46.3%, likely 1-0
• 15:00 UTC Colchester United v Walsall (League Two): Colchester 37.5%, likely 1-0
• 15:00 UTC Crewe Alexandra v Barnet (League Two): Barnet 45.9%, likely 1-2
• 15:00 UTC Fleetwood Town v Bristol Rovers (League Two): Bristol Rovers 45%
• 15:00 UTC Oldham Athletic v Crawley Town (League Two): Oldham 57%, likely 2-0
• 15:00 UTC Salford City v Exeter City (League Two): Salford City 69.9%, likely 1-0
• 15:00 UTC Shrewsbury Town v Gillingham (League Two): Shrewsbury 55.1%, likely 2-1
• 15:00 UTC Swindon Town v Rotherham United (League Two): Swindon 38.6%, likely 2-1
• 15:00 UTC Tranmere Rovers v Cheltenham Town (League Two): Tranmere 56.4%, likely 2-1
• 15:00 UTC Kilmarnock v St Johnstone (Scottish Premiership): Kilmarnock 41.9%, likely 2-1
• 15:00 UTC Motherwell v St Mirren (Scottish Premiership): Motherwell 53%, likely 1-0
• 15:00 UTC KV Mechelen v Racing Genk (Belgian Pro League): Genk 57.6%, likely 1-2
• 15:00 UTC Fredrikstad v Rosenborg (Eliteserien): Rosenborg 60.5%, likely 0-2
• 15:00 UTC Elsa Jacquemot v Alina Charaeva (WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open): A. Charaeva 70.3%
• 15:15 UTC Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo (La Liga): Rayo 38.6%
• 15:15 UTC Eibar v Almería (LaLiga 2): Almería 43.6%, likely 1-2
• 15:30 UTC Feyenoord Rotterdam v Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie): Feyenoord 81.1%, likely 2-0
• 15:30 UTC Moreirense v Estrela (Primeira Liga): Estrela 42.5%, likely 1-2
• 15:30 UTC Alexander Zverev v Alex de Minaur (ATP Erste Bank Open): A. Zverev 65.1%
• 15:30 UTC Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva v Alice Tubello (WTA Curitiba Open): N. Leme Da Silva 55.7%
• 16:00 UTC Warriors v Western Province (South Africa Domestic T20/Pro20): WPR 52.1%
• 16:00 UTC Fenerbahce v Goztepe (Super Lig): Fenerbahce 62.5%, likely 2-1
• 16:00 UTC SC Rheindorf Altach v SV Josko Ried (Austrian Bundesliga): SC Rheindorf 46.6%
• 16:00 UTC Navy Midshipmen v Notre Dame Fighting Irish (NCAA Football): Notre Dame 52.9%
• 16:00 UTC Texas Tech Red Raiders v Arizona Wildcats (NCAA Football): Texas Tech 55.5%
• 16:00 UTC Syracuse Orange v SMU Mustangs (NCAA Football): SMU 52.9%
• 16:00 UTC Iowa Hawkeyes v Wisconsin Badgers (NCAA Football): Iowa 55.5%
• 16:00 UTC NC State Wolfpack v California Golden Bears (NCAA Football): NC State 55.5%
• 16:00 UTC Duke Blue Devils v Boston College Eagles (NCAA Football): Duke 63.6%
• 16:00 UTC Maryland Terrapins v Illinois Fighting Illini (NCAA Football): Illinois 52.9%
• 16:00 UTC South Florida Bulls v UAB Blazers (NCAA Football): South Florida 55.5%
• 16:00 UTC Western Michigan Broncos v Bowling Green Falcons (NCAA Football): W Michigan 55.5%
• 16:00 UTC Jiri Lehecka v Jan-Lennard Struff (ATP Swiss Indoors Basel): J. Lehecka 59.1%
• 16:15 UTC Catanzaro v Padova (Serie B): Catanzaro 41.5%, likely 2-1
• 16:30 UTC Rutgers Scarlet Knights v Michigan Wolverines (NCAA Football): Michigan 52.9%
• 16:45 UTC Ole Miss Rebels v Auburn Tigers (NCAA Football): Ole Miss 55.5%
• 17:00 UTC Udinese v AS Roma (Serie A): AS Roma 66%, likely 0-2
• 17:00 UTC Charlotte FC v Orlando City SC (MLS): Charlotte 45.5%, likely 2-1
• 17:00 UTC Kifisia v Olympiacos (Greek Super League): Olympiacos 75.5%, likely 0-1
• 17:00 UTC Aalesund v Sandefjord (Eliteserien): Aalesund 53%, likely 2-1
• 17:00 UTC Boston Bruins v Chicago Blackhawks (NHL): Bruins 76.7%
• 17:00 UTC Detroit Red Wings v St. Louis Blues (NHL): Red Wings 55.6%
• 17:15 UTC Standard Liege v KV Kortrijk (Belgian Pro League): Standard Liege 53.5%, likely 2-0
• 17:30 UTC Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace (Premier League): Spurs 62.9%, likely 2-0
• 17:30 UTC Real Betis v Málaga (La Liga): Betis 68.7%, likely 2-0
• 17:30 UTC Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga): Bayern 71.5%, likely 2-1
• 17:30 UTC RC Celta Fortuna v Córdoba (LaLiga 2): Celta Fortuna 37.1%, likely 2-1
• 17:45 UTC Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie): Heerenveen 40%, likely 2-1
• 17:45 UTC PSV Eindhoven v Willem II (Eredivisie): PSV 84.4%, likely 3-0
• 18:00 UTC Columbus Crew v D.C. United (MLS): Columbus 67.6%, likely 2-0
• 18:00 UTC FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union (MLS): Philadelphia 38.9%, likely 1-2
• 18:00 UTC New York City FC v CF Montréal (MLS): NYCFC 64.7%, likely 2-0
• 18:00 UTC Al Hilal v Al Fateh (Saudi Pro League): Al Hilal 89.8%, likely 3-0
• 18:00 UTC Colorado Buffaloes v Kansas State Wildcats (NCAA Football): Colorado 63.6%
• 18:00 UTC Nashville Predators v Tampa Bay Lightning (NHL): Lightning 54.1%
• 18:00 UTC New York Islanders v Edmonton Oilers (NHL): Islanders 50.2%
• 18:30 UTC Sampdoria v Virtus Entella (Serie B): Sampdoria 46.8%, likely 1-0
• 18:30 UTC LASK Linz v WSG Swarovski Tirol (Austrian Bundesliga): LASK Linz 77.1%, likely 2-0
• 19:00 UTC Sporting Kansas City v FC Dallas (MLS): Dallas 54.5%, likely 1-2
• 19:00 UTC St. Louis CITY SC v San Diego FC (MLS): St. Louis 44.2%, likely 2-1
• 19:00 UTC Coritiba v Vitória (Brasileirao): Coritiba 38.1%, likely 1-0
• 19:00 UTC Guingamp v Saint-Étienne (Ligue 2): St. Étienne 58.5%, likely 0-2
• 19:00 UTC Utah Jazz v Portland Trail Blazers (NBA): Jazz 52.1%
• 19:00 UTC Air Force Falcons v UConn Huskies (NCAA Football): Air Force 55.5%
• 19:00 UTC East Carolina Pirates v Temple Owls (NCAA Football): East Carolina 55.5%
• 19:15 UTC Louisville Cardinals v Stanford Cardinal (NCAA Football): Louisville 63.6%
• 19:30 UTC Karlsruher SC v 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (2. Bundesliga): Heidenheim 53.1%, likely 1-2
• 19:30 UTC Georgia Bulldogs v Florida Gators (NCAA Football): Georgia 55.5%
• 19:30 UTC Indiana Hoosiers v Minnesota Golden Gophers (NCAA Football): Indiana 55.5%
• 19:30 UTC BYU Cougars v Arizona State Sun Devils (NCAA Football): BYU 55.5%
• 19:30 UTC Oregon Ducks v Northwestern Wildcats (NCAA Football): Oregon 55.5%
• 19:30 UTC TCU Horned Frogs v Kansas Jayhawks (NCAA Football): TCU 63.6%
• 19:30 UTC Utah State Aggies v Colorado State Rams (NCAA Football): Utah State 55.5%
• 19:30 UTC North Dakota State Bison v UTEP Miners (NCAA Football): N Dakota St 55.5%
• 19:30 UTC Liberty Flames v Florida International Panthers (NCAA Football): Liberty 55.5%
• 19:45 UTC AC Milan v Internazionale (Serie A): Inter Milan 51.2%, likely 1-2
• 19:45 UTC Troyes v Le Mans (Ligue 1): Troyes 39.8%
• 19:45 UTC Anderlecht v KVC Westerlo (Belgian Pro League): Anderlecht 70.5%, likely 2-1
• 19:45 UTC Waasland-Beveren v Union St.-Gilloise (Belgian Pro League): Union SG 73.3%, likely 0-2
• 19:45 UTC Cincinnati Bearcats v Utah Utes (NCAA Football): Cincinnati 55.5%
• 19:45 UTC Wake Forest Demon Deacons v Virginia Cavaliers (NCAA Football): Wake Forest 55.5%
• 20:00 UTC Aston Villa v Fulham (Premier League): Aston Villa 44.8%, likely 1-0
• 20:00 UTC Barcelona v Alavés (La Liga): Barcelona 85.5%, likely 3-0
• 20:00 UTC Ajax Amsterdam v AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie): Ajax 52.8%, likely 2-1
• 20:00 UTC SC Cambuur v Go Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie): Go Ahead Eagles 44.7%
• 20:00 UTC Deportivo Riestra v Talleres (Córdoba) (Liga Profesional): Riestra 41.6%, likely 1-0
• 20:00 UTC Albacete v CD Sabadell (LaLiga 2): Albacete 47.4%, likely 1-0
• 20:00 UTC San José State Spartans v New Mexico Lobos (NCAA Football): San José St 55.5%
• 20:00 UTC Los Angeles Kings v Buffalo Sabres (NHL): Sabres 50.9%
• 20:00 UTC San Jose Sharks v Ottawa Senators (NHL): Sharks 50.4%
• 20:15 UTC UCLA Bruins v Nevada Wolf Pack (NCAA Football): UCLA 63.6%
• 20:15 UTC Oklahoma Sooners v South Carolina Gamecocks (NCAA Football): Oklahoma 55.5%
• 20:15 UTC Penn State Nittany Lions v Purdue Boilermakers (NCAA Football): Penn State 55.5%
• 20:30 UTC FC Porto v Estoril (Primeira Liga): FC Porto 73.5%, likely 2-0
• 21:00 UTC LA Galaxy v Austin FC (MLS): LA Galaxy 64.1%, likely 2-1
• 21:00 UTC San Jose Earthquakes v Real Salt Lake (MLS): Salt Lake 36.6%, likely 1-2
• 21:00 UTC O'Higgins v Ñublense (Primera Division): O'Higgins 51%, likely 1-0
• 22:00 UTC Charlotte Hornets v Philadelphia 76ers (NBA): Hornets 57.2%
• 22:15 UTC Vélez Sarsfield v San Lorenzo (Liga Profesional): Vélez 43.8%, likely 1-0
• 23:00 UTC Pachuca v Tigres UANL (Liga MX): Pachuca 37.4%, likely 1-0
• 23:00 UTC Llaneros FC v Atlético Junior (Primera A): Llaneros FC 43%
• 23:00 UTC New Orleans Pelicans v Atlanta Hawks (NBA): Pelicans 52.4%
• 23:00 UTC Iowa State Cyclones v Oklahoma State Cowboys (NCAA Football): Iowa State 55.5%
• 23:00 UTC Florida State Seminoles v Clemson Tigers (NCAA Football): Florida St 55.5%
• 23:00 UTC San Diego State Aztecs v Washington State Cougars (NCAA Football): San Diego St 55.5%
• 23:00 UTC Montreal Canadiens v Pittsburgh Penguins (NHL): Canadiens 61.4%
• 23:00 UTC Vancouver Canucks v Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL): Maple Leafs 63.6%
• 23:30 UTC North Carolina Tar Heels v Miami Hurricanes (NCAA Football): North Carolina 55.5%
• 23:30 UTC USC Trojans v Ohio State Buckeyes (NCAA Football): USC 55.5%
• 23:30 UTC Texas Longhorns v Mississippi State Bulldogs (NCAA Football): Texas 55.5%
• 23:30 UTC Pittsburgh Panthers v Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (NCAA Football): Pitt 55.5%
• 23:45 UTC Arkansas Razorbacks v Missouri Tigers (NCAA Football): Missouri 52.9%

How to read these numbers

Every probability is the output of a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where they exist, with a form and record model for the American leagues. A 55% favourite loses almost half the time, so the percentages are the point, not the pick. Every call is locked before kick-off and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.