Aston Villa v Man City headlines 24 October: 201 predictions, the stakes and where the value is

201 games across 44 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.

Saturday, 24 October 2026 brings 201 games across J1 League, WTA Kinoshita Group Japan Open, A-League Men, Australian Domestic One-Day Competition and 40 more. 1 of them is a playoff game, 40 involve a team on a run of three or more, and the biggest of the day is Aston Villa against Manchester City in the Premier League. This is the day in sections: what is at stake, which favourites look fragile, where our prices and the market split, and the full schedule with a pick for every game.

The big one: Aston Villa v Manchester City

Aston Villa14.8%vManchester City61.7%Man City to win · 61.7%

Why it matters: Aston Villa sit 12th (8 pts), Man City 1st (21 pts); Aston Villa have won 3 in a row.

Manchester City are a solid favourite at 61.7% (draw 23.5%, Aston Villa 14.8%). Expected goals come out at 1 for Aston Villa and 2.1 for Manchester City, with 1-2 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (61.7%), and both teams to score is likely at 58.3%. On Elo ratings Manchester City are the clearly stronger side (117 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Aston Villa WWWDW, Manchester City WWLWW (most recent first).

The two sides have met 4 times recently: Aston Villa won 3, Manchester City won 1 and 0 were draws, averaging 2.5 goals a game with both teams scoring in 75% of them.

Team news: Messi Cup 2026: How to watch in the UK, who is taking part, when and what is it?. The second edition of the Messi Cup is almost here. Here's everything you need to know about the tournament.

Playoff games, table clashes and streaks

• Palmeiras v Red Bull Bragantino (Brasileirao, 21:30 UTC): Palmeiras sit 2nd (66 pts), Bragantino 10th (41 pts); Palmeiras have won 3 in a row. Model: Palmeiras 55.3%.
• Lazio v Parma (Serie A, 18:45 UTC): Lazio sit 2nd (19 pts), Parma 19th (4 pts); Lazio have won 3 in a row. Model: Lazio 65.6%.
• Red Bull New York v Inter Miami CF (MLS, 21:30 UTC): Red Bull NY sit 9th (36 pts), Miami 2nd (55 pts); Miami have won 3 in a row. Model: Miami 53.1%.
• Coventry City v Fulham (Premier League, 14:00 UTC): a relegation six-pointer, 18th against 19th. Model: Fulham 46.5%.
• SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburg SV (Bundesliga, 13:30 UTC): Paderborn sit 16th (5 pts), Hamburg 9th (9 pts); Hamburg have won 3 in a row. Model: Paderborn 37.2%.
• Edmonton Oilers v Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL, 23:00 UTC): Oilers sit 1st (8-1), Maple Leafs 18th (6-4); Oilers have won 3 in a row; Maple Leafs have won 3 in a row. Model: Oilers 61.8%.

Where the model and the bookmakers disagree

A gap of five points or more between our probability and the de-vigged market price is where a prediction becomes interesting. 6 games clear that bar today.

A positive gap means the model is more confident than the market, which over a season is where the edge, if any, has to come from. A negative gap is a favourite the model likes less than the bookmakers do.

Upset watch

• Gaziantep FK (40.6%) over Erzurum BB, with Gaziantep on a 3-game losing run. Draw 27.1%, Erzurum 32.3%.
• St Mirren (46.8%) over Dundee, with St Mirren on a 5-game losing run. Draw 23.5%, Dundee 29.7%.
• Anaheim Ducks (56%) over Philadelphia Flyers, who have won 3 straight, with Ducks on a 5-game losing run. Flyers 44%.
• Norwich City (47.5%) over Charlton Athletic, with Norwich City on a 5-game losing run. Draw 27.8%, Charlton 24.8%.
• Rotherham United (40.3%) over Shrewsbury Town, who have won 2 straight. Draw 27.7%, Shrewsbury 31.9%.

Goals markets

• Over 2.5 lean: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 v Energie Cottbus, 85.8% (expected goals 2.7 and 2.1)
• Over 2.5 lean: Dijon FCO v Rodez Aveyron, 84.2% (expected goals 2.8 and 1.8)
• Over 2.5 lean: IK Sirius v AIK, 82% (expected goals 3.1 and 1.4)
• Under 2.5 lean: Exeter City v Fleetwood Town, 88.9%
• Under 2.5 lean: Northampton Town v Colchester United, 86.8%
• Both teams to score: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 v Energie Cottbus is the strongest at 82.4%

Yesterday in one line

52 of 87 picks landed (59.8%), against a running 56.7% over 1277 settled predictions. The full review, including the misses, is in the model review. Read the review

Every game today, 201 predictions

• 05:00 UTC Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-Pulse (J1 League): Sanfreece 67.9%, likely 2-0
• 05:15 UTC Ann Li v Ashlyn Krueger (WTA Kinoshita Group Japan Open): A. Li 58.1%
• 06:00 UTC Kashima Antlers v Kashiwa Reysol (J1 League): Kashima 49.1%, likely 2-1
• 06:00 UTC Tokyo Verdy 1969 v Avispa Fukuoka (J1 League): A Fukuoka 41%, likely 0-1
• 06:00 UTC Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia (J1 League): Machida Zelvia 40.8%, likely 0-1
• 06:00 UTC Western Sydney Wanderers v Auckland FC (A-League Men): Western Sydney 48%
• 06:00 UTC Western Australia v New South Wales (Australian Domestic One-Day Competition): NSW 58.6%
• 06:30 UTC Katie Boulter v Katerina Siniakova (WTA Kinoshita Group Japan Open): K. Siniakova 52.5%
• 06:45 UTC Denmark v Kuwait (CWC Challenge League Group A): KUW 59.7%
• 06:45 UTC Kenya v Qatar (CWC Challenge League Group A): KENYA 51.7%
• 07:00 UTC Gamba Osaka v Kyoto Sanga (J1 League): Gamba Osaka 55.8%, likely 2-1
• 07:00 UTC New Zealand v India (India tour of New Zealand 2026/27): IND 68.4%
• 07:00 UTC Leylah Fernandez v Marie Bouzkova (WTA BNB Ningbo Open): L. Fernandez 50.8%
• 07:30 UTC Namibia v Ireland (Ireland tour of Namibia 2026/27): IRE 51.5%
• 08:40 UTC Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City FC (A-League Men): Melbourne V 36.6%, likely 2-1
• 09:00 UTC Mozambique v Uganda (ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group C): UGA 93.3%
• 09:30 UTC Elena Rybakina v Diana Shnaider (WTA BNB Ningbo Open): E. Rybakina 70.4%
• 10:00 UTC Nikoloz Basilashvili v Stefanos Tsitsipas (ATP Almaty Open): S. Tsitsipas 64.2%
• 10:30 UTC Eyupspor v Kasimpasa (Super Lig): Kasimpasa 68.5%, likely 0-2
• 11:00 UTC 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 v Energie Cottbus (2. Bundesliga): Heidenheim 58.2%, likely 2-1
• 11:00 UTC 1. FC Magdeburg v Karlsruher SC (2. Bundesliga): Magdeburg 52.4%, likely 2-1
• 11:00 UTC Hertha Berlin v Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga): Hertha 52.7%, likely 2-1
• 11:30 UTC Aston Villa v Manchester City (Premier League): Man City 61.7%, likely 1-2
• 11:30 UTC Charlton Athletic v Norwich City (Championship): Norwich City 47.5%, likely 0-1
• 11:30 UTC Portsmouth v Millwall (Championship): Millwall 37%
• 11:30 UTC Sheffield United v Derby County (Championship): Sheffield Utd 48.7%, likely 2-0
• 11:30 UTC Huddersfield Town v Wigan Athletic (League One): Huddersfield 80.8%, likely 2-0
• 11:30 UTC Luton Town v Leicester City (League One): Luton 41.4%, likely 2-1
• 11:30 UTC Bristol Rovers v Swindon Town (League Two): Bristol Rovers 67.6%, likely 2-1
• 11:30 UTC Cheltenham Town v Newport County (League Two): Cheltenham 35.5%, likely 2-1
• 11:30 UTC Northampton Town v Colchester United (League Two): Northampton 51.9%, likely 1-0
• 12:00 UTC Rayo Vallecano v Elche (La Liga): Rayo 52.5%, likely 2-1
• 12:00 UTC Córdoba v Eibar (LaLiga 2): Córdoba 56.2%
• 12:00 UTC Dijon FCO v Rodez Aveyron (Ligue 2): Dijon FCO 48.7%, likely 2-1
• 12:00 UTC Tommy Paul v Taylor Fritz (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): T. Paul 51%
• 13:00 UTC Gambia v Zambia (ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group C): ZMB 76.6%
• 13:00 UTC Nigeria v Lesotho (ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group C): NGA 91.5%
• 13:00 UTC Cagliari v Bologna (Serie A): Bologna 44.6%, likely 0-1
• 13:00 UTC Como v Sassuolo (Serie A): Como 58.7%, likely 2-0
• 13:00 UTC Cremonese v Juve Stabia (Serie B): Cremonese 55.7%, likely 1-0
• 13:00 UTC Modena v Cesena (Serie B): Modena 69.5%, likely 1-0
• 13:00 UTC Sudtirol v Sampdoria (Serie B): Sampdoria 46.1%
• 13:00 UTC US Avellino v Padova (Serie B): Avellino 42.6%, likely 1-0
• 13:00 UTC Virtus Entella v Mantova (Serie B): Virtus Entella 46.6%, likely 2-1
• 13:00 UTC Gaziantep FK v Erzurum BB (Super Lig): Gaziantep 40.6%, likely 1-0
• 13:00 UTC BK Häcken v Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan): BK Häcken 73.6%, likely 2-0
• 13:00 UTC IK Sirius v AIK (Allsvenskan): Sirius 62.3%, likely 3-1
• 13:00 UTC Daniil Medvedev v Alexander Bublik (ATP Almaty Open): D. Medvedev 61.3%
• 13:30 UTC FC Augsburg v 1. FC Union Berlin (Bundesliga): Augsburg 44.3%, likely 2-1
• 13:30 UTC FC Cologne v Schalke 04 (Bundesliga): Cologne 42.5%, likely 1-0
• 13:30 UTC Mainz v Werder Bremen (Bundesliga): Mainz 51.2%, likely 2-1
• 13:30 UTC RB Leipzig v SV Elversberg (Bundesliga): RB Leipzig 67.5%, likely 2-1
• 13:30 UTC SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburg SV (Bundesliga): Paderborn 37.2%, likely 1-0
• 14:00 UTC Arsenal v Everton (Premier League): Arsenal 63.6%, likely 1-0
• 14:00 UTC Coventry City v Fulham (Premier League): Fulham 46.5%, likely 0-1
• 14:00 UTC Blackburn Rovers v Wrexham (Championship): Wrexham 39.9%
• 14:00 UTC Cardiff City v Birmingham City (Championship): Birmingham 42%, likely 1-2
• 14:00 UTC Lincoln City v Burnley (Championship): Burnley 43.9%, likely 1-2
• 14:00 UTC Preston North End v West Bromwich Albion (Championship): West Brom 52.9%, likely 0-1
• 14:00 UTC Queens Park Rangers v Swansea City (Championship): QPR 39.9%, likely 1-0
• 14:00 UTC Stoke City v Bristol City (Championship): Stoke 36.5%, likely 1-0
• 14:00 UTC West Ham United v Southampton (Championship): West Ham 55.7%, likely 2-1
• 14:00 UTC Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford (Championship): Wolves 69.9%, likely 2-0
• 14:00 UTC AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe Wanderers (League One): Wycombe 60.1%, likely 1-2
• 14:00 UTC Blackpool v Mansfield Town (League One): Mansfield 46.1%, likely 0-1
• 14:00 UTC Bromley v Peterborough United (League One): Peterborough 53.8%, likely 1-2
• 14:00 UTC Burton Albion v Leyton Orient (League One): Burton Albion 37.7%, likely 1-0
• 14:00 UTC Cambridge United v Plymouth Argyle (League One): Cambridge 39.6%, likely 2-1
• 14:00 UTC Doncaster Rovers v Sheffield Wednesday (League One): Sheffield Wed 45.9%, likely 0-2
• 14:00 UTC Notts County v Stockport County (League One): Stockport 68.7%, likely 0-1
• 14:00 UTC Oxford United v Bradford City (League One): Bradford 36.9%
• 14:00 UTC Reading v Barnsley (League One): Reading 62.3%, likely 2-0
• 14:00 UTC Stevenage v Milton Keynes Dons (League One): Stevenage 48.2%, likely 1-0
• 14:00 UTC Barnet v Oldham Athletic (League Two): Barnet 57.9%, likely 2-1
• 14:00 UTC Chesterfield v Crewe Alexandra (League Two): Chesterfield 64.4%, likely 1-0
• 14:00 UTC Crawley Town v Tranmere Rovers (League Two): Crawley 36.5%, likely 1-0
• 14:00 UTC Exeter City v Fleetwood Town (League Two): Exeter 38.6%, likely 1-0
• 14:00 UTC Gillingham v Grimsby Town (League Two): Grimsby 52.1%, likely 1-2
• 14:00 UTC Rochdale v Accrington Stanley (League Two): Rochdale 36.3%, likely 2-1
• 14:00 UTC Rotherham United v Shrewsbury Town (League Two): Rotherham 40.3%, likely 2-1
• 14:00 UTC York City v Port Vale (League Two): York City 48.3%, likely 1-0
• 14:00 UTC Dundee United v Aberdeen (Scottish Premiership): Dundee Utd 46.8%, likely 1-0
• 14:00 UTC Falkirk v Kilmarnock (Scottish Premiership): Falkirk 54.9%, likely 2-1
• 14:00 UTC Rangers v St Johnstone (Scottish Premiership): Rangers 89.9%, likely 1-0
• 14:00 UTC St Mirren v Dundee (Scottish Premiership): St Mirren 46.8%
• 14:00 UTC Antwerp v Royal Charleroi SC (Belgian Pro League): Royal Charleroi 60.6%, likely 0-2
• 14:00 UTC Bodo/Glimt v Vålerenga (Eliteserien): Bodo/Glimt 90.1%, likely 3-0
• 14:00 UTC Neom SC v Abha (Saudi Pro League): Neom SC 67%, likely 1-0
• 14:00 UTC Francisco Cerundolo v Tallon Griekspoor (ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open): F. Cerundolo 67.3%
• 14:00 UTC Flavio Cobolli v Lorenzo Musetti (ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes): L. Musetti 55%
• 14:15 UTC Racing Santander v Espanyol (La Liga): Racing 36.5%, likely 2-1
• 14:15 UTC Leganés v Mallorca (LaLiga 2): Mallorca 52.1%, likely 0-1
• 14:30 UTC FC Utrecht v PEC Zwolle (Eredivisie): FC Utrecht 52.4%, likely 2-1
• 14:30 UTC Estrela v Casa Pia (Primeira Liga): Estrela 50.2%, likely 2-0
• 15:00 UTC TSV Hartberg v Wolfsberger (Austrian Bundesliga): TSV Hartberg 50.3%, likely 2-1
• 15:00 UTC WSG Swarovski Tirol v Grazer AK (Austrian Bundesliga): Swarovski Tirol 37.5%, likely 2-1
• 15:05 UTC Al Kholood v Al Ettifaq (Saudi Pro League): Al Kholood 37.8%, likely 2-1
• 15:15 UTC Catanzaro v Ascoli (Serie B): Ascoli 43.6%, likely 0-1
• 15:30 UTC Djurgården v Örgryte IS (Allsvenskan): Djurgården 89.2%, likely 3-0
• 15:30 UTC Kalmar FF v IF Brommapojkarna (Allsvenskan): Kalmar FF 60.2%, likely 2-1
• 15:30 UTC La Serena v Deportes Concepcion (Primera Division): La Serena 45.6%
• 16:00 UTC Napoli v AS Roma (Serie A): AS Roma 42%, likely 0-1
• 16:00 UTC Samsunspor v Amed SFK (Super Lig): Amed SFK 60.4%, likely 1-2
• 16:00 UTC Iraklis v Kifisia (Greek Super League): Kifisia 37%
• 16:00 UTC Hamarkameratene v Rosenborg (Eliteserien): Rosenborg 69%, likely 1-2
• 16:00 UTC Miami Hurricanes v Pittsburgh Panthers (NCAA Football): Miami 55.5%
• 16:00 UTC Michigan Wolverines v Indiana Hoosiers (NCAA Football): Michigan 55.5%
• 16:00 UTC Cincinnati Bearcats v Texas Tech Red Raiders (NCAA Football): Cincinnati 55.5%
• 16:00 UTC Auburn Tigers v LSU Tigers (NCAA Football): Auburn 55.5%
• 16:00 UTC SMU Mustangs v California Golden Bears (NCAA Football): SMU 55.5%
• 16:00 UTC Northwestern Wildcats v Rutgers Scarlet Knights (NCAA Football): Northwestern 63.6%
• 16:00 UTC TCU Horned Frogs v West Virginia Mountaineers (NCAA Football): TCU 55.5%
• 16:00 UTC Florida Atlantic Owls v Rice Owls (NCAA Football): FAU 55.5%
• 16:00 UTC Toledo Rockets v Western Michigan Broncos (NCAA Football): Toledo 55.5%
• 16:15 UTC OH Leuven v Lommel SK (Belgian Pro League): OH Leuven 58.2%, likely 1-0
• 16:30 UTC Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur (Premier League): Chelsea 50.9%, likely 2-1
• 16:30 UTC Valencia v Villarreal (La Liga): Villarreal 47.9%, likely 0-1
• 16:30 UTC Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga): Dortmund 57.2%, likely 2-0
• 16:30 UTC Girona v RC Celta Fortuna (LaLiga 2): Girona 58.1%, likely 2-0
• 16:30 UTC Las Palmas v Real Sociedad II (LaLiga 2): Las Palmas 43.1%, likely 2-1
• 16:30 UTC Asteras Tripoli v Levadiakos (Greek Super League): Asteras Trip 55.6%, likely 1-0
• 16:30 UTC Arthur Fils v Jan-Lennard Struff (ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open): A. Fils 75.1%
• 16:45 UTC Willem II v SC Cambuur (Eredivisie): Cambuur 38.7%, likely 1-2
• 17:00 UTC Alverca v Arouca (Primeira Liga): Alverca 43%, likely 2-1
• 17:00 UTC AEK Athens v Panetolikos (Greek Super League): AEK Athens 89.7%, likely 2-0
• 17:00 UTC Atlanta Dream v Golden State Valkyries (WNBA): Dream 60.3%
• 17:00 UTC Kansas Jayhawks v Baylor Bears (NCAA Football): Baylor 52.9%
• 17:00 UTC Kent State Golden Flashes v Akron Zips (NCAA Football): Kent State 55.5%
• 17:00 UTC Central Michigan Chippewas v Miami (OH) RedHawks (NCAA Football): C Michigan 55.5%
• 17:00 UTC Philadelphia Flyers v Anaheim Ducks (NHL): Ducks 56%
• 17:30 UTC CF Montréal v Nashville SC (MLS): Nashville 62.8%, likely 0-2
• 17:30 UTC Arezzo v Benevento (Serie B): Benevento 49.9%, likely 0-2
• 17:30 UTC Rapid Vienna v Austria Lustenau (Austrian Bundesliga): Rapid Vienna 88%, likely 3-0
• 17:45 UTC Banfield v Lanús (Liga Profesional): Lanús 50.2%, likely 0-1
• 18:00 UTC Al Riyadh v Al Taawoun (Saudi Pro League): Al Taawoun 47.6%, likely 0-1
• 18:30 UTC 1. FC Nürnberg v Kaiserslautern (2. Bundesliga): 1. FC Nürnberg 46.3%, likely 1-0
• 18:45 UTC Saint-Étienne v Nantes (Ligue 2): St. Étienne 51.4%, likely 2-0
• 18:45 UTC Lazio v Parma (Serie A): Lazio 65.6%, likely 2-0
• 18:45 UTC Lens v Paris FC (Ligue 1): Paris FC 37.2%, likely 1-2
• 18:45 UTC KVC Westerlo v Waasland-Beveren (Belgian Pro League): Westerlo 42.1%, likely 2-1
• 18:45 UTC RAAL La Louvière v Zulte-Waregem (Belgian Pro League): Zulte-Waregem 49%, likely 1-2
• 19:00 UTC Atlético Madrid v Deportivo (La Liga): Atlético 86.1%, likely 2-0
• 19:00 UTC ADO Den Haag v Heerenveen (Eredivisie): Heerenveen 49.3%, likely 1-2
• 19:00 UTC Almería v Real Oviedo (LaLiga 2): Almería 63.9%, likely 2-1
• 19:00 UTC Illinois Fighting Illini v Oregon Ducks (NCAA Football): Illinois 55.5%
• 19:30 UTC Gil Vicente v FC Porto (Primeira Liga): FC Porto 70.1%, likely 0-1
• 19:30 UTC Columbus Crew v Toronto FC (MLS): Columbus 59.2%, likely 2-1
• 19:30 UTC Internacional v Botafogo (Brasileirao): Internacional 48.5%, likely 1-0
• 19:30 UTC Mirassol v São Paulo (Brasileirao): Mirassol 36.2%, likely 1-0
• 19:30 UTC Vitória v Athletico-PR (Brasileirao): Athletico-PR 38.4%, likely 1-2
• 19:30 UTC UCF Knights v BYU Cougars (NCAA Football): BYU 52.9%
• 19:30 UTC UCLA Bruins v Michigan State Spartans (NCAA Football): UCLA 63.6%
• 19:30 UTC South Carolina Gamecocks v Tennessee Volunteers (NCAA Football): South Carolina 55.5%
• 19:30 UTC Alabama Crimson Tide v Texas A&M Aggies (NCAA Football): Alabama 55.5%
• 19:30 UTC Minnesota Golden Gophers v Iowa Hawkeyes (NCAA Football): Minnesota 55.5%
• 19:30 UTC Mississippi State Bulldogs v Oklahoma Sooners (NCAA Football): Mississippi St 55.5%
• 19:30 UTC Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets v Boston College Eagles (NCAA Football): Georgia Tech 63.6%
• 19:30 UTC Navy Midshipmen v North Texas Mean Green (NCAA Football): North Texas 52.9%
• 19:30 UTC Northern Illinois Huskies v Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (NCAA Football): N Illinois 55.5%
• 19:30 UTC Ball State Cardinals v Sacramento State Hornets (NCAA Football): Ball State 55.5%
• 19:30 UTC Buffalo Bulls v Bowling Green Falcons (NCAA Football): Buffalo 55.5%
• 19:30 UTC New Jersey Devils v Los Angeles Kings (NHL): Devils 67.7%
• 19:45 UTC Arizona State Sun Devils v Kansas State Wildcats (NCAA Football): Arizona St 63.6%
• 20:00 UTC Talleres (Córdoba) v Defensa y Justicia (Liga Profesional): Talleres 43.6%
• 20:00 UTC Ohio Bobcats v Eastern Michigan Eagles (NCAA Football): Ohio 55.5%
• 20:00 UTC Troy Trojans v UL Monroe Warhawks (NCAA Football): UL Monroe 86.6%
• 21:00 UTC Nevada Wolf Pack v San José State Spartans (NCAA Football): Nevada 55.5%
• 21:00 UTC Southern Miss Golden Eagles v Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (NCAA Football): Southern Miss 87.7%
• 21:00 UTC Louisiana Tech Bulldogs v Old Dominion Monarchs (NCAA Football): Old Dominion 84.5%
• 21:30 UTC Red Bull New York v Inter Miami CF (MLS): Miami 53.1%, likely 1-2
• 21:30 UTC Palmeiras v Red Bull Bragantino (Brasileirao): Palmeiras 55.3%, likely 2-0
• 21:30 UTC Vasco da Gama v Corinthians (Brasileirao): Vasco 57.1%, likely 1-0
• 22:00 UTC Charlotte Hornets v Miami Heat (NBA): Hornets 57.7%
• 22:00 UTC Washington State Cougars v Boise State Broncos (NCAA Football): Washington St 55.5%
• 22:15 UTC San Lorenzo v Newell's Old Boys (Liga Profesional): San Lorenzo 36.4%, likely 1-0
• 22:30 UTC Chapecoense v Fluminense (Brasileirao): Fluminense 55.3%, likely 0-2
• 22:30 UTC Colorado State Rams v San Diego State Aztecs (NCAA Football): Colorado St 55.5%
• 23:00 UTC León v Toluca (Liga MX): Toluca 50.1%, likely 1-2
• 23:00 UTC O'Higgins v Cobresal (Primera Division): O'Higgins 67.2%, likely 2-1
• 23:00 UTC Oklahoma State Cowboys v Colorado Buffaloes (NCAA Football): Oklahoma St 55.5%
• 23:00 UTC Clemson Tigers v Virginia Tech Hokies (NCAA Football): Clemson 63.6%
• 23:00 UTC Boston Bruins v San Jose Sharks (NHL): Bruins 65.6%
• 23:00 UTC Ottawa Senators v New York Rangers (NHL): Senators 51.7%
• 23:00 UTC Pittsburgh Penguins v Nashville Predators (NHL): Penguins 56.5%
• 23:00 UTC Washington Capitals v Buffalo Sabres (NHL): Capitals 60.7%
• 23:00 UTC Columbus Blue Jackets v Vegas Golden Knights (NHL): Golden Knights 61.5%
• 23:00 UTC St. Louis Blues v Carolina Hurricanes (NHL): Hurricanes 52%
• 23:00 UTC Edmonton Oilers v Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL): Oilers 61.8%
• 23:05 UTC América de Cali v Cúcuta Deportivo (Primera A): América Cali 88.2%, likely 2-0
• 23:30 UTC Atlanta United FC v Chicago Fire FC (MLS): Chicago 41.3%, likely 1-2
• 23:30 UTC D.C. United v FC Cincinnati (MLS): Cincinnati 43.8%, likely 1-2
• 23:30 UTC Orlando City SC v New York City FC (MLS): NYCFC 36%, likely 1-2
• 23:30 UTC Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution (MLS): Philadelphia 60.2%, likely 2-1
• 23:30 UTC Cleveland Cavaliers v Brooklyn Nets (NBA): Cavaliers 65.3%
• 23:30 UTC Philadelphia 76ers v Milwaukee Bucks (NBA): 76ers 60.6%
• 23:30 UTC Texas Longhorns v Ole Miss Rebels (NCAA Football): Texas 55.5%
• 23:30 UTC Kentucky Wildcats v Vanderbilt Commodores (NCAA Football): Kentucky 55.5%
• 23:30 UTC Wisconsin Badgers v USC Trojans (NCAA Football): Wisconsin 55.5%
• 23:30 UTC Arizona Wildcats v Iowa State Cyclones (NCAA Football): Arizona 55.5%
• 23:30 UTC North Carolina Tar Heels v Syracuse Orange (NCAA Football): North Carolina 63.6%
• 23:30 UTC Texas State Bobcats v Utah State Aggies (NCAA Football): Texas St 55.5%

How to read these numbers

Every probability is the output of a Dixon-Coles goals model blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where they exist, with a form and record model for the American leagues. A 55% favourite loses almost half the time, so the percentages are the point, not the pick. Every call is locked before kick-off and scored publicly on the track record page once the result is in.